Assess the likely implications of a devaluation in the dollar. (12)

Should we concerned about a rapid devaluation in the dollar?

Benefits of devaluation

Economic Growth

If the dollar becomes weaker, exports become cheaper leading to an increase in demand for US exports. This can help to increase AD and improve the rate of economic growth. This may be important, because problems in the US housing market are threatening the rate of economic growth. Falling house prices are potentially reducing consumer spending, therefore, a rise in exports could help to boost economic growth and prevent any move towards a recession.

Balance of Payments.

The US has a large current account deficit (7% of GDP) therefore a devaluation will help to improve and reduce the current account deficit. However, a devaluation alone is unlikely to solve the problem. Also, there is evidence that demand for exports and imports is relatively inelastic; therefore, any devaluation will have a small impact on the value of exports and imports. It is argued that the fundamental reason for a deficit is the low levels of domestic savings and consequently high levels of consumer spending.

Inflation

A devaluation may lead to increased inflationary pressures for 3 reasons:

1) Increase in exports causes rising AD and therefore could lead to demand pull inflation.
2) Imported goods will be more expensive. American consumers would definitely experience a rise in price for many imported manufactured goods and imports of raw materials could increase costs of business.
3) It is argued a devaluation reduces the incentive, for manufacturers and exporters, to cut costs and become more efficient.

However, the impact of a devaluation depends on the state of the economy. As previously mentioned, the US economy is slowing down; therefore inflationary pressures are subdued and therefore inflation is unlikely to occur.

• Will the US dollar continue to fall?

Labels: exchange rates, US economy