Forecast for Euro to Dollar

Many commentators feel that the Euro is looking overvalued against the dollar and Pound.On the futures market a majority of investors have taken a ‘short position’ on the Euro – meaning they expect it to fall in the coming months.

  • Since 2007, the Euro has appreciated from 68p to 1 Euro to 96p to 1 Euro
  • The Euro has appreciated from 0.68 to 1 Dollar to 0.79 $ to 1 Euro, in the past few months

In recent months the Euro has been strong as the ECB have kept interest rates higher than the UK and US. The ECB have also tried to avoid any quantitative easing – or increasing the money supply. It was hoped that the Eurozone would avoid the worst of the recession because it did not have the same banking / financial problems. However, this hope has not materialised growth in many European countries has become negative as the global nature of the recession has hit exports hard.

ECB Interest rates

ECB interest rates were cut from 2.% to 1.5%. However, many feel that ECB rates will fall further to US / UK levels making the Euro less attractive. If the recession deepens there is even the possibility of the ECB pursuing some form of quantitative easing.

ECB Interest rates
ECB Interest rates

The fall in ECB interest rates will weaken the Euro.

Markets are also concerned at the high levels of government debt in countries like Italy, Greece and Ireland.

According to the Big Mac index, the Euro is 50% overvalued against the dollar. link

2 thoughts on “Forecast for Euro to Dollar

  1. Are you still bearish on the Euro vs the Dollar? How do you see the recent gains of the Euro, can the Euro hold on these gains?

  2. Well said, the situation is almost changed already!
    Latest (7 October 2010) Euro 1 = USD 1.397

    Friday, October 8, 2010, 24:18
    Target reached upward for the exchange rate between euro and dollar, with a maximum in the European session at 1.4028 yesterday, exceeded the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the descent from maximum to minimum at 1.5141 to 1, 1876.

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