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UK Inflation Rate and Graphs

Current UK Inflation Rate

  • CPI  inflation rate: 1.7% (headline rate)
  • CPIH grew by 1.6% in the year to Feb 2014
  •  (page updated April 3rd, 2014)

monthly-inflation

CPI and CPIH

CPIH is a new experimental index from the ONS. It is based on CPI, plus it includes housing costs, such as mortgage interest payments. Owner occupiers cost (OOH) account for 12% of the CPIH weighting. Mortgage interest payments are the biggest part of OOH. Mortgage interest payments average 10% of household expenditure.

cpi-cpih-inflation

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Devaluation of the Indian Rupee

The Indian Rupee has fallen in value against a basket of currencies since independence in 1947. In recent years, the Indian Rupee has continued to depreciate in value.

Indian Rupee value against US Dollar

INR-USD_v2.svgIn 1990, you could buy $1 for 16 Indian Rupees. By 2013, the value of a Rupee had fallen, so that you would need 65 Indian Rupees to buy $1.

Another way of thinking about it:

  • In 1990 1 Indian Rupee = $0.06
  • In 2013 1 Indian Rupee = $0.016

This shows there has been a substantial fall in the value of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar.

When there is a devaluation in the Indian Rupee it means that Indian exports become cheaper, but imports are more expensive for Indians to buy.

In particular, a devaluation in the Rupee is bad news for Indians who need to import raw materials, such as oil and gold.

Causes of Devaluation in Rupee

Lack of competitiveness / inflation. The long term decline in the value of the Rupee reflects India’s relative decline in competitiveness. In particular, India  has a higher inflation rate than its international competitors. In November 2013, Indian inflation reached 11.24%. Therefore, there is relatively less demand for the rising price of Indian goods; this reduction in demand causes a fall in the value of the Rupee.

Current account deficit. A consequence of poor competitiveness and high demand for imports is a current account deficit. This means India is purchasing more imports of goods and services than it is exporting. A large current account deficit tends to put downward pressure on a currency. This is because more currency is leaving the country to buy imports than is coming in to buy exports.

In the first quarter of 2013 the Current Account Deficit was 18.1 billion. The deficit was over 6.7% in last quarters 2012, the deficit has fallen to 1.2% in Q3 2013. However, the Economist notes that 75% of the deficit reduction is artificially related to reducing imports of gold through government restrictions. (See: Indian economy 2014) Therefore, there is still an underlying trade deficit, India will need to work on through increasing exports and competitiveness.

A current account deficit can be financed by capital inflows (on the financial account). But,  recently, India has been struggling to attract sufficient long-term capital investment. Some major companies have recently pulled out of foreign direct capital investment. This puts more downward pressure on the Rupee.

Oil Prices

India is a net importer of oil. It has to buy oil in dollars. Therefore, rising oil prices worsen India’s current account and also weaken the Rupee. More Indian’s Rupee’s have to be spent on buying oil.

Impact of Devaluation in Indian Rupee

Inflationary pressures. India is trying to control inflation, which has been running into double digits. But, devaluation makes itself makes it harder to control inflation. The devaluation increases the price of imports, such as oil and fuels, leading to cost push inflation. Also, devaluation is considered an ‘easy’ way of restoring competitiveness, therefore devaluation may reduce the incentives for exporters to work on improving long-term competitiveness. Finally, devaluation can help boost domestic demand. Exports will rise and consumers will switch to domestic producers rather than imports. This can cause demand-pull inflation.

Economic growth

A devaluation can boost domestic demand and short-term economic growth. However, this is not necessarily helpful for the Indian economy. India’s economy needs to concentrate on boosting productivity and long term productive capacity, rather than relying on boosting domestic demand. The rapid devaluation has also caused a loss of confidence in international and domestic investors. With a history of quick depreciation, foreign investors will be more nervous of investing in India. The devaluation and inflationary impact will also discourage domestic investors, e.g. firms worried about future oil prices. This reduction in investment is damaging to long-term economic growth.

Devaluation spiral

The concern is that high Indian inflation causes devaluation, which in turn feeds into more cost-push inflation. Thus it becomes a difficult to escape out of this unwelcome negative spiral of inflation-devaluation-inflation.

Policies to stem devaluation in Rupee

  • Supply side policies to improve competitiveness
  • Reduce dependency on foreign oil, through domestic and renewable energy.
  • Monetary policy to tackle inflation and reduce domestic demand. But, will conflict with lower economic growth and lead to higher unemployment.
  • Financial controls, e.g. limiting the amount of gold imports to reduce the current account deficit.

 Related posts

Related posts on devaluation

Note on terminology: In strict terms, we should refer to the depreciation in the Indian Rupee. A devaluation means a fall in the value of a fixed exchange rate. But, in practical terminology, the distinction between depreciation and devaluation is often blurred.

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Key measures of economic performance

Traditionally, the key measures of economic performance in macro-economics include:

  1. Economic growth – real GDP growth.
  2. Inflation – e.g. target CPI inflation of 2%
  3. Unemployment – target of full employment
  4. Current account – satisfactory current account, e.g. low deficit.

Of these indicators, economic growth is usually the most importance and given the greatest credence for economic performance. It is frequently used for international comparisons and is probably the most prominent statistic. Politicians can use GDP statistics as a trump card – as if a quarterly growth of 1.0% vindicates all economic policy.

However, real GDP has several limitations. Not least is the fact that it is not always a reliable guide to living standards. With stagnant wages, cost push inflation and a rising population, average median incomes have fallen in the recent decade. Between  2009-10 to 2011-12 median incomes fell  in the UK cumulatively by 5.9% from, taking average incomes back to levels seen a decade earlier. It means that despite the recovery in real GDP, some people feel that they are not benefiting from economic recovery.

Indicators for economic performance

The Fabian think tank believes that median income would give a better indicator to overall economic performance. They also state other indicators which would help give better impression of economy.

  • Rate of National debt reductions
  • Level of greenhouse emissions
  • Income inequality
  • Labour productivity
  • Intermediate skills
  • Affordable homes
  • Incidence of low pay
  • Employment rates

Pros and cons of GDP

For all its limitations, GDP is widely used across the world. It does gives a rough guide to the level of economic activity. The fall in GDP of 2008/09 was indicative of the recession. Prolonged growth of real GDP 1993-2007 was indicative of the relative prosperity and rise in living standards.

For all its faults GDP does give a useful guide to the economic cycle and is a indicator for monetary policy and fiscal policy.

GDP is also measurable – it is objective. For example, we could go to the other extreme and start a survey asking people whether they are happy with their economic situation? This may give an interesting insight into economic welfare. But, a raw statistics, such as GDP gives more confidence than a survey – which by its very nature is subjective.

The downside of GDP come when it is relied on too much. Rising GDP, could hide a fall in average incomes and a rise in poverty. GDP  doesn’t take into account income distribution. Growth in GDP could primarily benefit the top income strata.

For example, a problem the Fabian group identify is the rise in UK housing costs. In the past few decades, UK Housing has become less affordable. This is good new for home owners who see a rise in wealth and rents. It is bad news for people struggling to buy or pay rents. This is a classic example of how a rise in GDP can cause rising living standards for some, but falling living standards for others.

Don’t forget population. At the very least, we need to take into account population and real GDP per capita. The UK’s rising population is one reason for increasing GDP.

All statistics are limited

One problem is that all statistics have some limitation. Even employment rates can be partially misleading. For example is the employment temporary or permanent? Employment figures have been better than expected, but there has been a rapid rise in zero hour contracts causing an increase in labour market insecurity.

When I see national debt used as a measure of living standards I always start to worry. Countries which made enthusiastic attempts to cut their budget deficit, such as Greece and Portugal have seen a dramatic fall in living standards. It seems mistaken to use debt reduction as a measure of living standards when debt itself might be the necessary consequence of dealing with a demand side shock.

Overall

Overall, it is important for economists to look beyond the headline statistics. Real GDP will always be useful for showing the stage in the economic cycle. It is of some use in indicating living standards. But, it is far from the ultimate guide. There is always a need to look at similar statistics to give a better overall picture. In this case median income is definitely an important indicator to economic welfare. Similarly when looking at unemployment. It is insufficient to use just the raw unemployment data. We need to know the kinds and types of jobs created.

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Economics of the Pound shop

When I was young (let say the 1980s) a Pound shop was a bit of a novelty.

Battle_of_the_pound_shops

Visiting Morecambe, a seaside resort, there would be one or two Pound shops. I only remember being struck how low quality everything was, they were a bit tacky, mainly some useless novelty items and a stick of Blackpool Rock. No self-respecting middle class consumer would consider doing the bulk of their weekly shop at a Pound shop. But, in recent years, Pound shops have emerged as one of the fastest growing retail outlets in the UK. Suddenly the High Street is awash with shops offering everything for a £1. It raises some interesting economic questions:

  • How do Pound shops manage to sell so many goods for £1?
  • Why have they become so successful in recent years?
  • To what extent can they challenge traditional retail, like the Supermarket Giants?
  • Are they good for society or should we be worried about the proliferation of Pound Shops?
  • Is there growth sustainable?
  • What happens when inflation reduces the value of a Pound?

The success behind the Pound shops

The reason Pound shops can sell so many goods so cheaply is due to basic economic principles.

  • Buying in bulk. Bulk buying is a classic economy of scale. The more that you purchase, the lower the average costs involved. Large global Pound shop chains can buy whole containers directly from China at a much lower price than buying through distributors.
  • Cutting out distributors. Typically, retail shops will buy from a distributor, who in turn buys from the source. This saves shops having to deal with many suppliers. But, Pound shops can buy in sufficient bulk to be able to get direct from the manufacturers, often in China / Asia.
  • Small margins. Pound shops run on very small margins. Small margins only work with high volume and a tight control of costs. The high volume in turn enables firms to continue bulk buying at low cost.
  • Low cost encourages more purchases. On the BBC series about Pound Shop Wars – I liked the quote from one customer who said his ‘Pound shop was most expensive shop in town. – I always see something more to buy.’

Why have Pound shops become so successful in recent years?

  • Changing consumer patterns. The difficult few years have encouraged consumers to seek bargains and low prices. In the past five years, we have experienced cost -push inflation, stagnant real wages and falling living standards. The squeeze on disposable incomes have made Pound shops increasingly attractive.
  • Strength of Chinese manufacturing. The relentless growth of low cost Chinese manufacturing has enabled an increase in the choice of low cost manufactured goods.
  • External economies of scale. The growth of the whole industry has encouraged manufacturers to consider producing specifically for the Pound shop market. Manufacturers are increasingly prepared to prepare products which can fit in with the Pound Shop model. Also, the growth of Pound shop chains have enabled them to gain internal economies of scale as they grow – leading to lower average costs for the big chains.
  • Little internet competition. In contrast to big ticket items, like electronic goods, Pound shops face little competition from the internet. Amazon do relatively little trade for items costing a £1 – Post and packaging become a bigger % of the price the cheaper the good is. Many retail shops have closed down due to internet competition, these retail spaces have often been taken by Pound Shops.

Can they challenge the Supermarket Giants?

At £1, Pound shops are limited. They don’t sell fresh produce. They cannot offer a comprehensive range of goods. But savvy consumers will begin to cherry pick doing half their shop in Pound shops and buying the remainder elsewhere. It will definitely reduce the profits of supermarkets, though I can’t see them being replaced.

What is the impact on the growth of Pound shops?

  • For consumers, generally they are good for keeping prices low. They offer a range of cheap goods, but also put pressure on other supermarkets to match the low prices. It is reducing the market power of the big Tescos and Sainsbury’s
  • Big Pound retail shops are squeezing smaller independent retailers who cannot compete with the costs of Pound shops. Though they face competition from a range of other sources, such as supermarkets.
  • Pound shops can actually be controversial. Some towns, e.g. Harrogate have seen protests against Pound shops for fear that it ‘reduces the value of the town’. Pound shops give an impression of being low quality, cheap and cheerful. Not everyone likes the idea of a High Street being dominated by Pound shops, squeezing out higher class traditional shops.
  • They put pressure on suppliers to keep reducing their costs to remain competitive. It squeezes the profit margins of big traditional firms.  Continue Reading →
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Vertical barriers to entry

Readers question “If a firm does not have access to the supply of a good then the market will not be contestable. E.g. Oil firms could restrict the supply of petrol to petrol stations, making it difficult for new firms to enter. E.g. for airlines a big issue is whether you can get a landing slot at a big airport.” Could you please explain?

bp petrol station

BP petrol station

A contestable market has freedom of entry and exit, and low sunk costs.

In economics, vertical integration refers to a firm gaining control over different stages of a supply chain.

For example in the petrol industry, we could simplify the industry to four different stages of production

  1. Oil drilling. – When firms build an oil well and pump out raw crude oil.
  2. Oil refining – the process where the crude oil is refined into petrol / diesel.
  3. Transport – where the petrol is transported to retail markets.
  4. Retail – Where petrol stations sell petrol / diesel to customers at the different petrol stations, such as Esso, Shell, BP, Tesco, Asda, and independent petrol retailers.

Suppose, you want to set up a petrol station to sell petrol in your local town. The costs of buying a premise to sell petrol is relatively low. The big difficulty will be buying petrol from the large oil companies who produce and refine petrol. There are very significant economies of scale in drilling and refining oil so that market is not very contestable. It is dominated by a small number of large firms.

The big oil companies, like Shell, BP, Esso may decide to collude and sell petrol to independent retailers at a very high price making it unprofitable for independent retailers  to sell petrol in a petrol station. Continue Reading →

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The effect of a current account surplus

Readers Question: how does a current account surplus affect domestic employment ?

A current account surplus means an economy is exporting a greater value of goods and services than it is importing. A country with a current account surplus will have a deficit on the financial / capital account. i.e. a country with a current account surplus will have surplus foreign exchange it can use to invest in other countries.

There is no hard and fast rule about what will happen if a country has a current account surplus. It depends on the size of the current account and the reasons for the current account surplus.

In theory, you could expect a current account surplus (X-M) to boost employment because it is indicative of higher domestic demand.

  • High exports (X) leads to increased employment in the export sector.
  • Lower import spending may mean people are spending more on domestic goods rather than buying foreign goods. Greater demand for domestic goods helps domestic employment.

Current account surplus in fixed exchange rate

One reason for a current account surplus is when a country has a relatively undervalued exchange rate. This may be a country in a fixed exchange rate. For example, Germany is in the Euro, but due to better German competitiveness than its European neighbours, Germany has had more competitive exports. The German export sector has helped strengthen the German economy.

Ceteris paribus, this current account surplus is helping to boost domestic employment. Because German exports are competitive, Germany is selling a lot of exports and this is leading to higher domestic employment in the exporting sector. Without the strong export demand, the German economy would be weaker and we would be liable to have higher unemployment.

If you compare it to countries with a large current account deficits in the Euro, the German economy has done relatively better in terms of economic growth and employment.

oecd-changes-current-account-2008-12

For example, in the mid 2000s, Euro member countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal were uncompetitive in the Euro, this was one factor leading to lower economic growth and lower employment in these countries.

Economists have often argued that Germany should boost consumer spending to help economic growth in other Euro countries.

Current account surplus and domestic demand

A current account surplus is partly due to high exports, but the other side of the equation is imports and domestic demand.

A country may have a large current account surplus because of relatively weak domestic demand. This weak demand leads to lower consumer spending, and lower spending on imports. Therefore, in this case, domestic employment will suffer from the weak economy.

The current account is often cyclical. In a boom, we see a rise in the current account deficit because consumer spending rises, leading to an increase in imports. During a boom unemployment falls and inflation rises.

But, in a recession, consumer spending falls leading to lower imports, lower inflation, and an improvement in the current account. The deficit may convert to a surplus, but this is due to the recession, and therefore leads to higher unemployment

Examples of current account surplus – China, Japan

currency

China had a record current account surplus in the mid 2000s, this was mainly due to greater competitiveness, helped by an undervalued Yuan. This was a factor in China’s record economic growth, and it led to higher employment.

Japan’s current account surplus was due to weak domestic demand, and a reluctance to buy imports. Japan’s export sector was still one of strongest sectors of the economy, but this period of a current account surplus was  a period of low growth and weak employment growth.

A current account surplus will tend to boost domestic employment if:

  • It is due to an improvement in competitiveness, leading to higher demand for exports.
  • If domestic demand is still relatively strong, but consumers are buying domestic goods, rather than importing.

A current account surplus could lead to lower domestic employment if:

  • The surplus is caused by a recession which has hit domestic demand and led to a fall in import spending.
  • In a global recession where a surplus is caused by falling exports and an even bigger fall in imports

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Flood defences as a public good

Here in Oxford, there is water everywhere. Yesterday, the a main road into town (Abingdon Road) was closed due to flooding, and the cost to business and householders will be quite significant. There is danger of even worse flooding to come. In one sense, it is an act of God. No one can do anything about the weather, but flooding is becoming an increasing problem, and many want the government to intervene to improve flood defences.

cyclists-water

Flood defences are in many ways a classic example of a public good.

They have the two characteristics of public goods.

  • Non-excludability. Once you provide flood defences for a city, everyone in that city will benefit and be protected. (People will be protected whether or not they have have contributed towards the cost).
  • Non-rivalry. If you enjoy a city defended from rising flood waters, it doesn’t reduce the amount of flood defences for other people. (It’s not like eating emergency rations, which do reduce the amount available for other people.)

Failure of the free market

  • Difficulty in provision. There is little, if any, incentive for a firm to provide flood defences through charging local residents. There is a big free rider problem. People on flood plains may have a vested interest in better flood defences, but there is temptation to avoid paying and hoping someone else will pay.
  • Another difficulty is that flooding has no predictability. Building roads (a quasi public good) gives a predictable return. Spending money on police and justice also give a predictable return. But, you could spend millions on flood defences and not need it for 30 years.
  • Another difficulty is that flood defences can be quite difficult to build. Dredging rivers done annually is expensive, though at least manegable. But, other flood defences may be more difficult, such as building relief canals to take excess water. This may need government help to purchase the necessary land.

Occasions where public good can be provided by the free market

Despite the limitations of public goods, it is still possible local residents may club together in a spirit of solidarity to provide local flood defences. Many of the flooding in England is along the affluent banks of the River Thames. Many of these householders are wealthy and their property iss worth a lot (or at least was worth a lot). It is easier to create a private initiative if there are many wealthy people involved, as they will have more spare cash to pay for flood defences, and also they have a bigger vested interest in defending the value of their properties. If the floods affected rented property of low income workers, it would be much harder to provide flood defences. But, these local initiatives may be limited as many flood defence projects require very substantial capital investment.

At a local level, parish councils or local authorities may be able to pay for certain amounts of flood defences.

The role of the government

Flooding has significant economic costs:

  • Personal cost of those stressed by flood levels
  • Economic cost of business not being able to trade normally
  • Transport links adversely affected hitting productivity
  • Higher insurance premiums for everyone. Because we have not paid for flood defences, the whole country will be paying higher insurance premiums to pay the cost. It would be cheaper to have paid for flood defences and not the higher insurance costs.
  • Loss of property value for those living in flooded areas.

This makes a clear case for the government to spend money on flood defences and pay for it out of general taxation.

Evaluation of government spending

  • There is a danger of moral hazard. If the government promise to secure all land from flooding, it may encourage people to build and move onto flood plains. If people wish to live on flood plains / near rivers, arguably they should be prepared to pay part of the cost.
  • Many of those affected by the floods are relatively more prosperous than the rest of the country. There is an argument about limiting the transfer of funds from the average tax payer, to wealth homeowners living by the River Thames.
  • But, it should be remembered flooding doesn’t just affect rich people with mansions on the Thames – it is a rather lazy generalisation. I know every income bracket in Oxford is being hit by flooding.

Flooding and austerity

In the political blame game, some are criticising the governments policy of austerity. In a recession, government capital spending would help increase aggregate demand and boost economic growth. Spending on flood defences is exactly the kind of ‘shovel ready’ projects which the government could have been spending on – rather than cutting spending. The capital spending would not only increase aggregate demand, but help boost productivity by avoiding lost output and economic activity due to the flood damage.

 

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Airline price discrimination

Price discrimination involves charging different prices to different sets of consumers for the same good. Firms can charge different prices depending on several criteria:

  • Quantity bought (e.g. lower unit price when higher quantity is bought)
  • Time of use (higher price at peak times)
  • Age profile (e.g. discounts for OAPs)
  • When unit is bought (e.g. discounts for buying early)

The main principle behind price discrimination is that a firm is trying to make use of different price elasticities of demand. If some people have a very inelastic demand, it means they are willing to pay a higher price. If the firm can set higher prices for these consumers it can increase its revenue and profits. Other consumers will be more sensitive to prices (elastic demand) and so will respond to special offers and price discounts. The firm can benefit if it can separate these consumers and therefore reduce their consumer surplus. See theory of price discrimination here

In the real world, price discrimination might involve charging a different price for a slightly different good.

RYANAIR

How does an Airline practise price discrimination?

Time of buying ticket. There is no hard and fast rule, but if you buy a ticket several months in advance it tends to be cheaper. If demand for the particular flight is high, then the airline starts putting up the price of that flight. It means that the remaining tickets will only be bought by people willing to pay a higher price (inelastic demand). If a particular flight is not selling very well, the airline will do the opposite and reduce price. This lower price attracts more people who are sensitive to prices and ensures that the flight will fill up.

Ideally, the airline would like to fill up the plane with passengers paying the most they are willing to pay. There is no point in selling very cheap tickets and having the flight sold out many weeks in advance.

Why does the price of an airline ticket change from hour to hour?

You may have had experience of looking for airline ticket and seeing a flight for £200. The next day, you return to buy ticket, but see it has gone up to £220. This is very annoying, but is due to price discrimination. The airline will reserve a certain number of economy tickets at a low price (to attract early customers more sensitive to price. But, if the tickets for flight are selling well, it can afford to charge higher prices for the remaining few tickets. The airline is trying to capture as much consumer surplus as possible)

Unsocial hours cheaper. Because some flight times are less popular, these flights will tend to be cheaper. For example, if you take a weekend break. Most people would prefer to come back late on Sunday. These late Sunday flights tend to be more expensive than early morning Sunday flights.

Paying extra for seats with more leg room. In economy class, Virgin offered a seat with 3 inches of extra leg room for £30. At 185cm, I jumped at offer. To me, it is a good £30 investment. It was quite popular with nearly 40% of seats in economy now being taken up with extra leg room seats. It’s not quite price discrimination because it’s a slightly different product, but the airline is able to charge higher prices to those consumers with slightly more inelastic demand. In addition to the 3 inches of extra leg room, you could go to the other extreme and pay £15,000 for a first class airfare.

Interestingly, you can only buy these extra leg room seats shortly before the flight. I wonder if this is to discourage people from avoiding business and just buying a cheap upgrade to economy?

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Unemployment Stats and Graphs

A selection of graphs and statistics on UK measures of unemployment. Also, looking at factors that explain UK unemployment and why unemployment has fallen in recent years – despite the ongoing economic stagnation.

Current UK Unemployment rate

  • 2.32 million million – 7.1% of the economically active population. (LFS) (ONS) (page updated Jan 7th, 2014)

Recent Unemployment Trends

total-unemployment-2007-present

Raw data:  Labour market data  | ILO unemployment % rate at ONS

UK Employment Rate

  • 72.1%.  There were 30.15 million people in employment aged 16 and over,

Participation Rate

  • 22.2% per cent inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64. 8.95 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64. In activity means that people are either not working or not seeking employment (e.g. students, parents bringing up children, early retirement, long term sickness) See also: Participation rates

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Economic Growth UK

  • Economic growth measures the change in real GDP (national income adjusted for inflation, ONS call it chained volume measure)
  • Economic growth in Q3 2013 was 0.8%.
  • In volume terms, GDP was 1.9% higher in Q3 2013 compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • In Q3 2013 GDP was estimated to be 2.0% below the peak in Q1 2008. From peak to trough in 2009, the economy shrank by 7.2%.
  • In current prices (adjusted for inflation) GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Q1 2013 and Q2 2013.

Recent UK Economic Growth

economic growth

Source: ONS

Raw data:  National income accounts | real GDP | % change quarterly |

National income accounts

  • The UK entered recession in 2008. We experienced a partial recovery in 2010 and 2011. But, by Q1 2012, the UK was officially back in recession.
  • Economic growth in Q3 2012 was 1.0% – helped by an Olympic ticket sales boost.
  • But, in Q4 2012, the economy went back into negative growth. Manufacturing fell 1.5%, service sector growth was flat, and construction rose 0.3% in the final quarter. In
  • In Q1, 2013, growth was 0.3% narrowly avoiding a triple dip recession. Since then economic growth in 2013 has been positive showing signs of a sustained recovery.
  • The recovery has been stronger in the service sector than manufacturing and industrial output.

It is worth bearing in mind that sometimes economic growth statistics get revised at a later stage.

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