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Problems in Preventing A Recession.

In a recession, fiscal policy and monetary policy can, in theory be used to increase Aggregate Demand and boost economic growth. However in practice there can be many difficulties with boosting a countries economic growth rate and reducing unemployment.

1. Confidence. In a recession confidence may be so low that cuts in interest rates and taxes do not have the effect  of increasing demand. For example the liquidity trap says that lower interest rates are ineffective in increasing spending because they do not change people’s behaviour at certain times

2. Hysteresis. This is an argument that when unemployment is high it is difficult to change that fact. - Workers become deskilled and demotivated. Therefore, even an increase in AD doesn’t solve unemployment because many workers don’t have the relevant skills and capacities to get a job.

3. Paradox of Thrift
. - In a recession people often want to save. But, this just makes the recession worse. It can lead to a negative multiplier effect. A fall in spending leads to less output. Lower output creates unemployment and so even more people have less skills.

Recession In US and Euro Zone

How would a recession in the US and EU affect the UK economy?

Over 75% of UK trade is with the US and EU. Therefore, a recession in these countries would have a significant impact.

Firstly, UK exports to these countries would fall. Therefore, the UK is likely to have a fall in AD, (or at least lower growth)
Therefore, the UK would experience a lower rate of economic growth. The impact of this fall in exports will depend upon several other factors. The impact will depend upon other factors affecting UK domestic demand. For example, if UK house prices continued to rise and consumer spending remained buoyant, then the UK would be able to avoid an economics downturn.

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