Italy has struggled to reduce national debt as a % of GDP since government debt has risen to over 100% of GDP in the late 1980s
National Debt Italy
Italy has the second highest public sector debt in Europe, after Greece. The IMF predict public sector debt of 123.4 % of GDP in 2012.
By 2013, Italian national debt is forecast to 123.8%
Historical Italian National Debt
Source: Debt and Growth in G7 (up until 1970s, Italian debt was below 50% of GDP. Source: Krugman)
Italian Budget Deficit
Despite the large total debt, Italy has a relatively low budget deficit as % of GDP.
Italian Deficit. Source: ECB
The Estimated budget deficits for 2012 and 2013 have been revised. The IMF predict that the deficit will be 2.4% of GDP in 2012, above the government’s own target of 1.6% (Reuters)
Readers Question: What do you think about Argentina’s economical future, with the current presidents politics and ~v22% inflation, taken in mind?
Argentina performed relatively well since crisis of 2002 (see: Argentina Recovery and Crisis). Leaving their exchange rate peg enabled some re balancing in the economy and helped to boost exports. Importantly, it left the Argentina economy with greater autonomy. However, although devaluation and expansionary policies can provide a temporary boost to the economy, this is not a panacea and there is a danger the Argentinian economy could experience increasing difficulties.
1. Misleading Economic Statistics.
According to the economist, the government statistic body is under-estimating inflation.
PriceStats, a specialist provider of inflation rates which produces figures for 19 countries that are published by State Street, a financial services firm, puts the annual rate at 24.4% and cumulative inflation since the beginning of 2007 at 137%. INDEC says that the current rate is only 9.7%, and that prices have gone up a mere 44% over that period.
Misleading economic statistics will be a factor that discourages foreign investment because there will be a lack of trust. The fact economists can be censored for publishing inflation figures only cements this damaging reputation.
2. Inflationary Growth Unsustainable.
I have written a lot about the need for Europe to promote expansionary policies in the middle of a recession. But, the situation in Argentina is different. Nominal GDP is growing quickly, (if we believe GDP statistics) and inflation is a persistent problem. People increasingly fear a higher rate of inflation in Argentina. This is because:
Government willing to print money
Expansionary Fiscal policy. The government have increased spending with no obvious plan to meet deficit shortfall. Recently, government funded higher spending through using pension fund in social security.
Roberto Lavagna — the former economy minister under Nestor Kirchner who is credited with resurrecting Argentina’s economy after the country’s 2001 default on its foreign debts — estimates that government subsidies for transportation and energy soared from U.S. $1.2 billion at the end of 2005 to U.S. $19 billion last year. (link)
Lack of Credible Monetary Policy for Low Inflation. Expectations for inflation are high. People don’t feel that there is a credible monetary policy. There is a fear that the government is likely to print money to finance higher spending in the hope of winning next elections
Argentina National Debt
Argentina have a history of debt default. The 2001 default was largest sovereign debt default on record £80bn Official statistics show national debt of only 48% of GDP. However, S&P give Argentina a credit rating of B. There is danger of higher borrowing reducing credit rating and leading to future debt defaults. There are still disputes over the default from 2001 (Economist link)
Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and income) World Bank data
Readers Question: With talk of a Greek exit from the Euro, the situation is almost always compared to Argentina in the 1980s and 90s. Can you explain what happened there and how it was resolved.
In the 1980s, Argentina built up substantial debt and also suffered from periods of very high inflation. To stabilise inflation, Argentina set a peg of the Argentina Peso against the dollar – the peg was one Peso to one dollar (this was enshrined in law).
The aim of this fixed exchange rate was to give people greater confidence in the Argentinian currency after periods of inflation.
The fixed exchange rate meant that inflation was stabilised and encouraged capital flows into Argentina. These capital flows led to a rise in wages and living standards
It also made imports cheaper, so the value of imports increased,
Exports became less competitive, leading to lower demand for exports.
This fall in exports and rise in imports lead to a current account deficit which was initially financed by these international capital flows.
However, the over-valuation of the currency contributed to a fall in domestic demand, and from 1998, Argentina experienced fall in GDP.
Also from 2001, international capital flows to Argentina dried up as investors were worried about the state of the global economy and the state of Argentina finances.
In particular, Argentina was adversely affected when the dollar rose against the Brazilian Real in 1999. This meant that the Argentina currency experienced a strong appreciation against its main trading partner – Brazil. This appreciation led to rapid fall in exports.
This appreciation in the Argentina currency was a key factor in pushing Argentina economy into a deep recession. Domestic demand fell. Unemployment rose to a socially crippling level of over 15%.
Government Debt
During 1999-2002, the Argentina government debt became unmanageable. This was because:
Legacy of debt from 1980s
Poor tax collection and corruption
Rise in government spending
Fall in tax revenues from recession.
International investors lost confidence in Argentinian bonds and interest rates rose to over 30%. Argentina relied on loans from the IMF to meet its shortfall.
Spain national debt was € 734,961 at the end of 2011 or 68% of GDP. This is a graph showing Spanish national debt in past 15 years. source: ECB stats By European and international standards, this is actually quite low. National debt in Italy is 120% of GDP. In France government debt is higher at 80% …
In 2012, the Pound has strengthened against the Euro – reaching a level not seen since 2008. However, the value of the Euro to Pound is still less than the peak of late 2007, when £1 reached €1.4.
In June 14th, 2012 £1 = €1.24 Euros. An increase since the start of the year when £1 = 1.18 Euros.
This appreciation in the Pound makes it cheaper to buy goods from Europe, but makes UK exporters less competitive.
The Pound’s appreciation against the Euro reflects the growing concern over the future of the Euro.
Rising Euro bond yields. Bond yields on major economies, Spain and Italy have continued to rise. There is fear over prospect of possible default in not just Greece, but also bigger economies like Spain and Italy.
Lack of Effective Political Will to Deal with Eurozone’s problems. There appears to be a reluctance to embrace a form of fiscal union. The main approach is to rely on fiscal austerity to deal with budget deficits in the peripheral countries. But, these austerity measures have failed to stop bond yields rising.
One thing I really struggle to understand at the moment is why any country would want to join the Euro. The experience of the past few years is that membership of the Euro can devastate your economy. Given a chance, half of the members of the Euro would wish they had never joined. Greece, Spain, …
Readers Question: Can someone please tell me what percent of the UK debt is held by the Bank of England? The Bank of England have purchased £325 bn of asset purchases, which are financed by issuing created reserves. Of these £325bn of assets, the vast majority are government gilts (bonds). The government’s net public sector …
The new French President Francois Holland has cut the country’s retirement age. For workers who begin work at 18, they will now be able to retire at 60 (cut from 62) The move is controversial given the state of the French and European economy. He cites social justice as the reason for cutting the retirement …
