It is difficult to predict the dollar because there are few different factors pulling the dollar in different directions.
Firstly, the dollar has been surprisingly resilient since the US slipped into its worst recession and US interest rates tumbled to near 0%. The resilience of the dollar is not based on economic fundamentals but, a general unwinding of positions and the ‘dash for cash’
Firstly, the dollar benefit from hedge funds and investment trusts deciding to get out of emerging economies. As they sold securities in emerging economies they generally were sold for dollars increasing demand for dollars.
Secondly, the prospect of deflation means that people are wanting to hold more cash. In many economies it is the dollar which is seen as the reserve currency, so there has been an increase in demand for dollar holdings as security against deflation and falling curencies.
However, these factors may be coming to an end and Economic Fundamentals point to a weaker dollar. The US
- Interest rates close to 0.5%. Yields on short term treasury bills is close to 0%. Therefore, there is little incentive to save in the US banks
- Increasing National Debt in the US. US public sector debt is already over 73% of GDP and rising quickly due to recession, government bailouts and stimulus packages. As public sector debt pushes towards 100% markets may have less confidence in the government’s willingness to repay debt without inflation. If this occured it would cause an outflow of money from the US and a big depreciation in the dollar.
- Increased Money Supply. Due to declining velocity of circulation, the US treasury has been able to increase monetary base without any inflation. The danger is if the velocity of circulation unexpectedly increased – this large rise in the monetary base could translate into very high inflation.
- Large Current Account deficit. The US has had a persistent current account deficit. This has fallen in recent years. However, the global credit crunch may make it harder to attract capital flows and therefore, this would require a depreciation in the dollar to reduce the current account deficit.
- Other Factors to Bear In mind.
- The Euro has been very strong recently, but, the Euro economy is also in recession; it is likely EU interest rates will fall as well; they may only be marginally above US rates. The high value of the Euro could cause problems for EU exporters.
- Purchasing Power Parity. ON measures of purchasing power parity, the US dollar is not overvalued. Goods in US still appear cheaper than in Europe or Japan.
You can tell it’s writen by a American. Very positive considering the USA is Bankrupt.
USA could fold and take all tresuary notes and bonds from the people to pay off there debt.
I see other countries dumping the dollar soon in 2009.
The change has began and time for the US to move over and let other country’s have a more level playing field.
It is my guess that all this mess of meltdown or downturn or the simple word crisis ( Crises) is happening because of target oriented economic model. There are ever increasing targets for evrything – varieties of products manufacturing and selling, amount of loans disbursed, single child families( target), number of S/B A/cs, varieties of economic instruments, number of MBAs, number of employed and number of attrition realized ( layoffs or retrenchment) and so on.
This trend has to crack somewhere as it was like MLM ( Tuperware).
I can elaborate if someone want it in detail what I mean
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@John – I believe the author is British?
Re: The post, brave try but predicting currencies is extremely difficult, of course. I think it’s only when a technical breach of some sort is occurring (such as Lamont trying to keep Britain in the ERM in the early 1990s) that you can make any predictions with confidence.
Of more practical value is to watch commodities, which are inversely related to the dollar.
Since the United States has huge debts to pay in both China and Japan and most of it’s financing in U.S. has been a 3 trillion dollar war with Iraq and nearly 120 countries of U.S. military bases as well as the multi trillion dollar deep underground military bases. These simply do not create income. Let’s assume the big plan and the U.S. planners are pure genius, and their ultimate goal is the new currency: the Amero, plus the North American Union. What could be better then not fulfilling the obligations to pay back debts owed by China and Japan by simply inflating the U.S. currency worthless and set up the Amero and North American Union by announcing federal bankruptcy in February 2009 and a switchover to the Amero in August 2009 and confiscation of hard assets of U.S. citizen’s gold as was done in the U.S. in the Great Depression in 1929. Maybe I am being paranoid, but that’s just only the worse case scenario only. A country can be bankrupted two ways, by massive cash infusions leading to hyperinflation or credit limitations as did in the Great Depression. A hyperinflation is a great way to pay worthless U.S. dollars to the lenders as inflation is caused by truly massive cash injection in incompetent big three autos, and financing firms. Now it is profitable for a few rich people to buy WAMU with assets of 300 billion for only 1 billion, and other things. However, a more sensible option would be to sell these to Euro corporations as their currency is too strong is a sensible strategy. But if the intention is to quit using the U.S. dollars and go to Amero and North American Union, putting U.S. dollars on hyperinflation would kill China and Japan, out of the competition and become a North American Union to even out the Mexican pesos. By chopping off U.S. and Canada’s legs right out under them. I think that’s the plan that the planners had in mind: eliminating the competition. It’s an old Standard Oil monopolistic practice used on a grand scale: the country level
Well the Dollar is strong because everyone is fleeing their currency to ours. Other countries will go down before us. Which will drive more people to the Dollar.
Go with what you know is safe even if its not really safe. Human nature.
You don’t need a worthless Dollar to start a new currency you need chaos. A worthless Dollar will work. Civil unrest or revolt in Mexico will do too.
The US loves to get involved in all kinds of messes. Mexico is is perfect right next door. My guess would be, we would do some things to stabilize the country. Then create a new currency like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now you just happen to make it accepted in the US and walla you got it. Then just keep expanding its use and wait until its on par with the Dollar and then slowly dump the Dollar.
There is a lot of money that can be made and debt hidden in a new currency. It would be a win win for banks, with all the exchange commissions they can charge.
Its all in how you package it, do it slow enough let blogs like this spread the idea and when it happens no one will take much notice.
I see a Depression on the Horizon. The country had already sent all the good jobs over to Brazil or China so, the robber barons could own slaves. Now the slaves are becoming educated. China poisoned our Pets, poisoned our people, and Poisoned our children. The biggest sham is I saw an Amerikan Flag made in Communist China. Welcome to USDA the United States of Despotic Amerika. Let the stock market go to hell