The Accelerator Effect

Definition of the Accelerator Effect

The accelerator effect states that investment levels are related the rate of change of GDP. Thus an increase in the rate of economic growth will cause a correspondingly larger increase in the level of investment. But, a fall in the rate of economic growth will cause a fall in investment levels.

accelerator-effect

Why the accelerator effect occurs

  • If firms see a rise in demand and expect this demand to be maintained, then they will soon start to reach full capacity.
  • Therefore, to meet the future demand, they will respond by investing now. To meet a growth in demand may require considerable investment outlay.
  • Because of economies of scale in investment, it is more efficient to make a significant investment (e.g. increase capacity 20%) – rather than small annual increases in investment of 2%.
  • Therefore, firms will wait for promising economic conditions, before embarking on investment decisions.

Implications of the accelerator effect

  • Investment tends to be more volatile than economic growth
  • The rate of economic growth stays the same. Investment levels will also stay the same
  • Investment spending can fall even when GDP is rising. This is because if there is a fall in the rate of economic growth firms may invest less.
  • If GDP falls, investment spending can fall very significantly.
  • Accelerator Coefficient. This is the level of induced investment as a proportion of a rise in National income accelerator coefficient = Investment/change in income.

Example from the UK economy

economic-growth-quarterly

UK economy 2008-15

UK-business-investment-05-15

Limitations of the accelerator effect

  • Time lags in investment. Once a project is started, a firm will tend to want to complete it – even if demand slows down.
  • Investment is affected by many other factors, such as investor confidence and the “animal spirits” of firms.
  • It depends whether firms are optimistic about their industry. For example, a bookshop may be more nervous about investing in increasing capacity because they fear changing conditions. Whereas an online store may be more optimistic about the long-term future of their industry.

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