Question: what effect would higher unemployment have on a country’s currency?

Readers Question. Lastly, what effect would a poor unemployment figure (e.g. lower than expected nonfarm payroll numbers) have on a country’s currency? Is it likely to strengthen (due to lower expectations of inflation) or weaken (due to less domestic productivity and higher imports? Poor unemployment figures would probably weaken the currency. If unemployment figures are …

Read more

Genuine Progress Indicator GPI v GDP

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is an attempt to measure the real increase in economic welfare. The GPI measures the improvement in economic welfare – costs associated with growth. It is measured using the formula GPI = A + B – C – D + I A is income weighted private consumption B is value …

Read more

Gas and Electricity Inflation in UK 2011

Source:  ONS This graph shows how inflation rates for different categories can vary enormously. Firstly, gas and electricity prices are by far the most volatile. This reflects the volatile nature of supply, it also reflects the fact demand and supply are inelastic. See: volatile food prices for the economic theory behind this volatility. Despite the …

Read more

Forecast for Sterling to Dollar 2011

Though the UK economy may appear very weak to British consumers who are facing tax rises and spending cuts, there are various reasons which explain why sterling has recently been stronger and could continue its upward movement. Prospect of Higher Interest rates. With one of the highest inflation rates in Europe, and higher than US, …

Read more

Forecast for Interest Rates 2011

The UK economy faces a few paradoxes. Low Growth – High Inflation. Firstly, after a deep recession the economic recovery is weak. In theory, high unemployment and low growth should lead to low inflation. However, due to rising energy and food prices, we have inflation above target. This presents a conundrum for the Bank of …

Read more

Spending cuts of coalition government and job losses

The coalition expects 490,000 public sector jobs to be lost by 2014-15 as a direct result of its drastic spending cuts, Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, has accidently disclosed. (link to Guardian) In addition the spending cuts, wage freezes and job losses will have a knock on effect to the rest of …

Read more

CPIY and Inflation

CPIY = CPI – indirect taxes such as VAT, stamp duty and excise duty. This gives a guide to underlying inflation, stripping away the distortionary impact of indirect taxes. This suggests underlying inflation is lower than the headline rate.(CPIY statistics.gov) A big issue for the UK economy is the existence of inflation when theoretically, there …

Read more

Effect of tax on inequality – example from UK 2010

There is often much discussion about the impact of tax and benefits on the distribution of income. This is an interesting graph which shows the impact of different taxes and benefits on income distribution. As expected, direct taxes (like income tax) are progressive – i.e. they take a bigger % of income from high earners. …

Read more

Item added to cart.
0 items - £0.00