Demand Deficient Unemployment.
This occurs when there is insufficient demand in the economy to maintain full employment. If demand falls, firms sell less and so reduce production. If they are producing less, this leads to lower demand for workers. Either workers are fired or a firm cuts back on employing new workers. In the worst case scenarios the fall in demand may be so great a firm goes bankrupt and everyone is made redundant (e.g. Woolworths, Borders e.t.c)
Demand deficient unemployment is associated with the theory of J.M.Keynes who developed his General Theory of Money against a backdrop of the Great Depression.
Diagram showing a fall in AD leading to lower GDP and hence higher unemployment.
Aspects of Demand Deficient Unemployment
- Unemployment rates amongst young workers often increases the most during a recession. Older workers may get laid off, but, the biggest brunt is borne by young workers who find firms are not taking on new staff. It is easier for a firm to cut back on hiring new workers than make existing staff redundant under legislation.
- Low Growth and Demand Deficient Unemployment.
It is possible to have demand deficient unemployment even when the economy is growing. Suppose an economy has a long run trend rate of 3%. This means on average, productivity is growing by 3% a year. If demand only grows by 1%, then there can be a rise in spare capacity and hence a rise in demand deficient unemployment.
Demand deficient unemployment may lead to a higher rate of long term unemployment. When people are made unemployment they may become de-skilled and demotivated. Therefore, they may find it more difficult to get work in the future. Therefore a period of cyclical unemployment could reduce long term productive capacity. (more on hysteresis)
Cyclical unemployment is related to demand deficient unemployment and often used interchangeably. It refers to how unemployment changes with the economic cycle. When the economy is booming, jobs are created and unemployment falls. When the economy slows down and goes into recession, firms will lay off workers creating the demand deficient unemployment.
Unemployment in US increased after 1982 economic downturn and sharply following recession of 2008.
How Long Does Demand Deficient Unemployment Last?
Classical economic theory suggests any cyclical unemployment will be temporary. Classical economists argue that if there is a fall in demand for labour, wages will fall to overcome the surplus of workers.
However, Keynes argued that demand deficient unemployment could persist in the long term.
- Workers may resist nominal wage cuts. Wages are ‘sticky downwards’.
- If firms did manage to cut wages, this would lead to a further fall in consumer spending and aggregate demand, causing more unemployment
- Negative Multiplier Effect. A rise in unemployment will cause a fall in consumer spending and therefore further cause a rise in unemployment.
- Furthermore, a rise in unemployment can adversely affect consumer confidence and consumer spending. The fear of unemployment can cause a rise in savings which further reduce economic growth. Keynes referred to this as a paradox of thrift.