Inflation set to fall in 2023

inflation-set-to-fall

After inflation has reached the highest levels for decades it is set to fall dramatically over the next few months. I’ll explain why this is, why we will not notice much difference and look at whether economists may be proved wrong yet again on inflation. Recently UK government has announced it plans to cut inflation …

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Russia’s declining influence over Energy Markets

natural-gas-prices-20-23

In 2021, Russia was the largest net exporter of gas and oil in the world. Yet a series of strategic blunders has seen its status as a major player slip away. Its high risk gamble to cut gas supplies to Europe is backfiring and Russia has been left with gas it can’t sell. Also the …

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UK House Prices in 2023

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Since their peak in August 22, UK House prices have fallen 5%, but the big question is how much will they fall in the next 12 months? Expert predictions range from a modest 2% decline to a fall of 12% from Capital Economics. Why has the market turned so quickly and could the house price …

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Why the Euro is a barrier to the UK ever rejoining the EU

uk-euro-inflation

In 2016, some argued the UK had the best of both worlds – membership of the EU, but opt outs from the Euro and Schengen Agreement, plus a generous rebate. However, since leaving the EU, the UK economy has experienced numerous problems, lower growth, lower investment and devaluation of the Pound, with some arguing GDP …

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Forecasts of Global Recession 2023

Kristalina_Georgieva_quote

2022 was a shocking year for the world economy, with the Ukraine war pushing up inflation and oil prices, causing economic disruption and lower growth. But, the IMF and World Bank predict 2023 will be even worse with major economies being pushed into a recession by the twin pressures of high inflation and high interest …

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Health care spending in the UK

health care spending % GDP

Since 1950, health care spending in the UK has increased dramatically in real terms (adjusted for inflation). In the post-war period, we have also seen a sharp rise in public health care spending as a % of GDP (from 3% in 1960 to 8% in 2019). Covid has led to another sharp rise in health …

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Investment in UK – Business and Public Sector

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uk-business-investment-labels

Source: ONS NPEN

Total UK Business investment since 1997. After sharp fall in 2009 due to global recession, investment recovered quite strongly. In 2016, Investment fell, at least in part, due to the uncertainty of the Brexit vote and leaving the Single Market. The covid pandemic caused another sharp fall in investment.

investment-uk-gan8

The poor investment performance is concerning for the UK economy as it is reflected in poor productivity growth, low economic growth and limited real wage growth

real-gdp-1995-2022-with-trend-rate

UK real GDP has never recovered its pre-2007 trend rate of growth.

labour-productivity-index-1986-20

The poor levels of investment post 2008 are reflected in poor labour productivity growth.

Investment in profile

From 2007 to 2010 we see a 22% fall in private sector business investment. This was the result of

  • Banking crisis – banks didn’t want to lend
  • Fall in consumer confidence
  • Recession, which caused firms to hold bank from investment

Recovery in business investment since 2010

  • From a low basis and 20% fall
  • Helped by low interest rates making investment more attractive, but availability of funds a bigger problem than the cost of borrowing.
  • Business investment has fallen behind past trend growth in value of business investment.
  • Still volatile and uncertain, e.g falls in 2014 and the end of 2015

Factors influencing future investment levels

  • Despite low interest rates, banks are maintaining strict lending criteria and rationing finance. Many small and medium sized firms still state finance is difficult to come by.
  • Prospects for economic recovery are poor. The Bank of England’s latest inflation report painted a gloomy picture of an economy struggling to post positive economic growth.
  • Fall in inflation rate and possible deflationary pressures
  • Uncertainties over Britain’s place in Europe.
  • Euro-zone debt crisis and EU recession also weigh heavily on UK investment decisions.
  • Future of interest rates. Will interest rates rise to increase the cost of borrowing.

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Crisis in NHS – Why Are Waiting lists so bad?

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Last week I accompanied a friend with a broken arm to a local hospital. We arrived 8 pm, but we didn’t get seen until 5 am. This kind of experience is typical of the recent surge in waiting lists that we have seen in the NHS. We can see it in waiting lists for A&E, …

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