Causes of Economic Instability

Readers Question: UNDERTAKE AN EVALUATION OF THE CAUSES OF ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND THE ROLE, IF ANY, THAT THE GOVERNMENT CAN PLAY IN REDUCING ECONOMIC INSTABILITY BY CONSTRAINING THEIR DISCRETION IN POLICY MAKING

 

Recent Economic Growth in UK

economic growth

Part 1 Causes of Economic Instability

Fluctuating Aggregate Demand

Aggregate Demand can be volatile for various reasons:

1. Changes in house prices.

UK house prices have been rising much faster than inflation, this creates a wealth effect and improved consumer confidence, therefore spending and AD increase. A fall in house prices, however, would cause the opposite effect. E.g. when house prices fell 15% in 1992, the UK entered a recession, with negative growth of 2%

2. Fluctuations in Stock Markets

A big fall in stock markets can trigger falls in consumer confidence and lead to a recession. The Wall street crash of 1929 was a primary cause of the great depression. However, the stock market crash of 1987 did not cause an economic downturn. In fact in the UK it was followed by an unprecedented economic boom. This was partly due to the way the government responded by cutting income tax and cutting interest rates.

3. Global Credit Markets

The sub prime mortgage problems in the US caused many firms to go insolvent. This cause a big fall in confidence in lending money. This shortage of credit led to a shortage of credit. This caused the problems of northern rock and reduced consumer confidence. See: credit crisis

4. Changes in Interest Rates

Interest rates are used as a tool in controlling inflation. However, they can also have an impact on consumer spending. Sometimes interest rates may have little impact; however, if they coincide with other factors they can cause a much bigger than expected fall in consumer spending. For example, in the UK, many homeowners have a variable mortgage. Therefore a small change in interest rates can have a big effect on disposable income. If an increase in interest rate was combined with another factor like slowing down of house price growth it may cause a big fall in spending.

  • note interest rates can have a delayed effect. E.g. the effect of interest rate increases last year may continue to affect consumer spending for up to 18 months

5. Global Factors

In an era of globalisation there is an increasing interdependence of the world economy’s. For example, if China’s boom was to end, there would be a marked slowdown in global growth. It used to be case the world was very dependent on the US economy. if the US economy suffered a recession, it would often drag the rest of the world into recession. This was because the US was the world’s biggest consumer of imports. However, it is argued that the world is less dependent on the US economy because of the development of new economies like China and India. Nevertheless global factors are of great importance.

6. Government Debt Crisis

If markets fear government debt is unsustainable or likely to face liquidity shortages, bonds will be sold. This will tend to push up interest rates on bond yields. This increases the government debt interest payments and puts pressure on the government to cut spending and reduce the budget deficit. This can cause a negative spiral of lower growth and lower tax receipts. (sovereign debt crisis)

 Graph Showing Quarterly Growth in UK

The 1991 recession was caused by:

  • Higher interest rates
  • Falling house prices causing decline in consumer wealth and spending
  • Strong (overvalued) Pound making exports too expensive
The 2008 recession was caused by:
  • Global credit crunch
  • higher oil prices
  • falling asset prices

Supply side Causes of Economic Instability

1. Price of Oil


oilprices

An increase in the price of oil can cause economic instability, especially if it is a sudden increase like in the 1970s. higher oil prices increase the costs of firms and cause the AS curve to shift to the left. This causes both inflation and lower growth.

However, it is worth noting that although the oil price is now nearing nearly $100 a barrel, it is not having a huge effect. The impact on economies like the UK is less than it was in the 1970s, partly because the increase in price has been more gradual. Costs of transport are still not a major problem. It would require a much bigger increase to have a really damaging impact.

5 thoughts on “Causes of Economic Instability

  1. I’ m economic student in MA and resaerch acout economic instability.
    Thank you for sending paper and comment to me.

  2. I’m economist student also I was involved economic issues in the last two decades particularly in my country where life and people lack of economic policy and work without reason their business, only for profit oriented by import materials and buy in local market, and the civilsociety remain punish endure for this market. inflation is common in this era of globalization since it my country and people blindly trade everything they ought to have profitmaking

  3. the second thing I guest for life is why, and how I can advocate economic issues that relate rest state where everything remian balance price, inflation, deflation, recession, greation of wealth, etc in economic term and also sustianable enviromental freind based policy with equal distribution of income

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