Readers Question: How likely are we to go into a double dip recession? There are many reasons to be gloomy about the current global economic prospects. A technical recession involves two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. We may avoid this actual fall in GDP, but we will definitely experience below trend economic growth – …
Standard & Poor downgraded the US fiscal position from AAA to AA. This reflects the credit rating agencies believe that the US fiscal position has deteriorated and they are more pessimistic over long term fiscal consolidation in the US. It means that the rating agency feels the threat of US defaulting on its federal debt …
In one sense the US is facing a debt crisis. The level of government borrowing has risen sharply as a % of GDP, and given current spending commitments, the forecast for borrowing is to continue to grow. Nevertheless, despite disputes over raising debt ceiling, the US doesn’t currently face a crisis like Greece or other …
Readers Question: On Jan 2009 I asked a question on the greek current account deficit, the fixed EUR rate, the lack of competitiveness and the debt load and you expanded brilliantly on the dangers of the twin deficits and the deteriorating Greek credit quality. Now I just need to make a comment that all the …
In times of uncertainty, people seek to find a safe investment. But, what are safe investments? Gold is currently over $1,500 May 2011 Gold / Silver. These are typically seen as a good investment and safeguard against inflation. Inflation decreases the value of money, but gold retains its value. With experiments in quantitative easing, there …
I wrote an article in this months (April) edition of Economic Review on the theme of spending cuts. It offers detailed arguments for spending cuts and also the problems of cutting spending in the current economic climate. It was written back in September quite a few months ago. A brief summary of the article. Arguments …
“Don’t Panic, Captain Mainwaring.” – Dad’s Army The famous catchphrase could perhaps be adapted to UK debt levels. The 1940s and 1950s, were an example of high debt, but, it didn’t cripple the UK economy, the 1950s proved to be a decade of full employment and was one of the longest periods of economic expansion …
The coalition expects 490,000 public sector jobs to be lost by 2014-15 as a direct result of its drastic spending cuts, Danny Alexander, the chief secretary to the Treasury, has accidently disclosed. (link to Guardian) In addition the spending cuts, wage freezes and job losses will have a knock on effect to the rest of …