Cherry picking of data means we look for particular data and statistics that help to illustrate our point of view. It can also mean we present data in a certain way which is more favourable to creating the impression we want. Even the same statistic can be presented in different ways to give a very …
How to judge George Osborne’s and David Cameron’s economic record since May 2010? They inherited an economy recovering from a deep recession, high unemployment and large budget deficit. It was a difficult economic circumstance, but at the same time you might expect a strong economic recovery as there was much unused capacity and potential for …
In 2015, the German current account surplus surged to 8.5% of GDP. A record level and a surplus which has implications for the Eurozone and global economy. Source: Bundesbank The surplus is primarily due to the surplus on trade in goods. Though in recent years, there has also been a surplus in primary income. This …
How will UK house prices be affected by Brexit – in both the short term and long-term? In the past few decades, the UK property market has been characterised by a long-term rise in real house prices. UK house prices have risen faster than inflation – especially in London and South. In fact, we could …
At the 1992 General election, the Conservative Party won a stunning electoral victory – despite being in the middle of a self-imposed recession. Many point to this as an example of how the press can influence national debate and influence elections. The 1991/92 recession was a classic example of a boom and bust. It wasn’t …
Housing equity withdrawal (HEW) is new borrowing secured on dwellings that is not invested in the housing market (e.g. not used for house purchase or home improvements). From Q1 2007 this is called Housing equity withdrawal (HEW) rather than its old name of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. (MEW) Source: Housing Equity Withdrawal at Bank of England. …
The UK saw net migration of 330,000 in the last year. If net migration were to fall significantly – how would this affect the UK economy? Net migration is generally difficult to predict, but there are good reasons to assume this is likely to fall in future years. Net migration will likely fall because: Climate …
Some thing that weren’t always made clear during EU referendum. Economic experts are worth listening to. A string of senior ‘leave’ politicians lined up to say you shouldn’t listen to economists making warnings about short term and long-term damage to economy. But, just because economic analysis is inconvenient to your point of view, doesn’t alter …