Economic uncertainty refers to how firms and consumers are unsure about the future direction of the economy and usually react in a more conservative behaviour (i.e. less spending and investment) Economic uncertainty usually causes a lower rate of economic growth, until the uncertainty is resolved. UK economic uncertainty Measuring uncertainty There is no easy …
Readers question: How much will the Pound devalue? Since the start of 2016, the Pound has been depreciating against other currencies – especially the US dollar. Since Brexit end of June, the Pound has fallen another 10% heading to a 30 year low against the US dollar. Pound Sterling against the Dollar This is daily …
Last Sunday, I rode a 12 hour time trial, finishing 2nd in the National Championships with 284 miles. If you’re fed up with politics, riding a 12 hour time trial is very good for clearing the mind. A little extreme maybe, but worth considering if you want to get away from it all. This week …
Readers question: Hello Tejvan! I wonder if you can explain if crimes have a net beneficial impact on the economy? Thank you! A nice change from Brexit problems. Does crime increase economic welfare? Let us suppose Tejvan buys a nice bicycle for £1,000 to commute into work. But, whilst locked up outside the office it …
At the 1992 General election, the Conservative Party won a stunning electoral victory – despite being in the middle of a self-imposed recession. Many point to this as an example of how the press can influence national debate and influence elections. The 1991/92 recession was a classic example of a boom and bust. It wasn’t …
Housing equity withdrawal (HEW) is new borrowing secured on dwellings that is not invested in the housing market (e.g. not used for house purchase or home improvements). From Q1 2007 this is called Housing equity withdrawal (HEW) rather than its old name of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. (MEW) Source: Housing Equity Withdrawal at Bank of England. …
I try to keep politics out of this economics blog. Though in recent few days, I’m failing to do that. I do hope the past few weeks prove to be a rare period of political turmoil. This is just a personal view, and you’re welcome to ignore. UK democracy is a funny thing. Unless you …
There have been a couple of thoughtful pieces from Paul Krugman challenging the consensus that Brexit will have very high short-term economic cost. Krugman’s argument is: There is uncertainty, but uncertainty on itself is not enough to create a significant demand side shock. In fact, when the uncertainty is resolved, we could have a mini-boom …