An evaluation of Labour’s remain campaign

To what extent was Labour’s remain campaign insufficient? It’s hard to say. Labour voters did vote 63% to remain, which compares to SNP (64%), Greens (75%) and Lib Dems (70%) and 42% Conservative. 4% for UKIP. How UK voted Pros of campaign It started well with message that social and economic problems caused by austerity …

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Dealing with Brexit

There are perhaps 16 million people who voted Remain and are now very unhappy at the decision to leave the EU. Feelings are so strong there are calls for a second referendum – 3 million signing a petition for a 2nd referendum. However, if the initial referendum was over-turned, you would have 17 million very …

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What they didn’t tell you during EU referendum debate

Some thing that weren’t always made clear during EU referendum. Economic experts are worth listening to. A string of senior ‘leave’ politicians lined up to say you shouldn’t listen to economists making warnings about short term and long-term damage to economy. But, just because economic analysis is inconvenient to your point of view, doesn’t alter …

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Recapitalisation of the Banks

Readers Question: I was just wondering what recapitalisation of the banks actually involves?

Recapitalisation involves a major change in the way a bank is funded. This could come about through issuing new shares or loan from a government. Essentially recapitalisation involves providing the bank with new capital, e.g. the government agree to buy new shares. This improves the banks’ bank balance and prevents them from going bust.

(capital means liquid funds such as share capital or loans)

Why has Recapitalisation of the Banks Occurred?

Since the credit crunch, the banks have lost money. This means that their liabilities are greater than their assets. Therefore they technically owe more to other people than assets they own. Banks lost money because:

  • People defaulted on loans and mortgages
  • Banks lent money (bought CDOs) to sub-prime mortgage companies in America who lost money.
  • Falling house prices mean that banks assets decline further and if they repossess homes it’s harder to get the value of the original loan back.
  • The recession led to more defaults and losses.

Fall in Inter-Bank Lending

Before the credit crunch, many banks relied on interbank loans to improve their balance sheets. For example, a bank would lend a long-term 30-year mortgage and finance this loan by borrowing on short-term money markets.

However, the credit crunch meant that banks were no longer willing to lend to each other. This means that they had a shortfall in their balance sheets and were left with losses. If consumers asked to withdraw all their savings, then the bank would not be able to meet the demand to withdraw deposits. Therefore, this created the need for recapitalisation – so that banks had enough money to pay back depositors who have savings in their bank.

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Pension Time Bomb

pension-nominal-spending

The ‘pension time bomb’ refers to how demographic changes will cause a rise in the percentage of people entitled to a pension (both state and private). An ageing population leads to smaller workforce, more spending on pensions (and healthcare) and could require higher taxes to meet spending commitments. . Some argue this is a serious …

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Will Brexit cause recession?

Will the UK’s decision to leave the EU cause recession? Factors which could cause Brexit recession Loss of confidence. Many foreign investors may be deterred from investing in the UK because of uncertainties that they may have higher costs for accessing the Single Market. This decline in investment could lead to fall in aggregate demand. …

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UK levels of foreign direct investment (FDI)

Foreign direct investment involves the transfer of funds to be involved in capital investment in a foreign company. For example, if a Japanese firm, like Toyota builds a factory in the UK, this counts as inward investment into the UK. Foreign direct investment does not include portfolio investment, e.g. Chinese saving money in UK banks …

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Framing political and economic messages

In economics, the framing effect states consumer choices will be influenced by how information is presented. One of the challenges of an economist is to find correct statistics and present them in a way which offers a meaningful and fair portrayal of the situation. Everyone has certain political bias and it can be tempting to …

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