Policies to reduce unemployment in Greece

Readers Question: What policy strategy is good to reduce unemployment in Greece? The Greek economy is experiencing grave problems, with record levels of unemployment. Unemployment in Greece is running at 27.5% – (end of 2013) This unemployment rate is even higher amongst young people. The unemployment is primarily caused by the prolonged recession which has …

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Ireland national debt

Irish national debt – the total amount of Irish government debt.

Irish national debt has increased to 117% of GDP in recent years because of a large financial bailout to Irish banks, deep recession which saw a 20% drop in nominal tax revenues, and continued weakness in GDP growth which has made it difficult to reduce debt to GDP, despite government spending cuts.

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Source: cso.ie

The Total Irish Government debt 2012 Q3 – €190,954 million – (117% of GDP)

Irish government debt millions

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See also: stats at ECB (Debt based on – Maastricht assets/liabilities – General government (ESA95) – European Commission – All sectors without general government (consolidation) (ESA95)

 Irish government spending

ireland-government-spending

The peaks in spending in 2010 were related to the Irish government bailout of banks. After the bailout, the government has pursued spending cuts.

Example of spending cuts from 2012 budget at Telegraph

Ireland 2012 budget

– €2.2bn of the €3.8bn of fiscal consolidation is on the spending side.

– Capital expenditure will be cut by €755m, while current spending cuts to contribute €1.4bn. (includes public sector pay, welfare payments, education and health care)

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EU Bond Yields and Debt

Stats on EU Bond Yields and Debt.

See also: Primary budget Deficits of EU

EU Bond yields 2010 – 2012

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ECB Long term Interest rates

EU Bond Yields 2010 – 2014

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2010-2012 – Why did Bond yields on Eurozone debt rise, but yields on UK debt fall?

One significant cause is that the ECB won’t / can’t act as lender of last resort and buy government bonds. Therefore markets fear a liquidity shortage in Eurozone and so are reluctant to hold bonds.

Further reading:  EU debt crisis explained

Related

See also:

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National Debt – FAQ

Definition of National Debt and National debt in the UK – National debt is essentially the total amount the government has borrowed from the private sector Should we worry about UK’s current situation? – Essay on reasons to worry and reasons not to worry Understanding Government debt statistics – History of National Debt – National …

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Unemployment Spain – How to Reduce

Readers Question: how we can reduce the unemployment (with implication ) in short run and long run and try to give some lively examples except of uk The unemployment rate in the UK is currently quite low about 4.5%. Therefore, it is difficult for the government to significantly reduce this. A lot of the unemployment …

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Where is the money in the economy spent?

Readers Question: Why is public money (taxes) only 47% of the UK’s GDP spent on public spending?, where is the rest of my money being spent. This is a genuine question from a 58 year old who has no real concept of how it all works,but has an innate understanding that I am being screwed. …

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Understanding the Economics Crisis

A look behind the causes and consequences of the economic crisis, and why it has been difficult to solve.

Background to Economic Crisis

The 1990s and early 2000s was a period of economic prosperity – Low inflation and high economic growth gave an impression of economic stability, but in other areas of the economy there were signs of boom and bust.

  • Housing Bubble. In US and European countries, there was a rapid rise in house prices, which caused a boom in house building and bank lending. In the US, the housing bubble was helped by a boom in mortgage lending. Banks began lending mortgages to people with little regard for their ability to pay back. (housing boom and bust)
  • Bank Lending Bubble. In the bubble years, banks became more aggressive in lending. They would borrow money on money markets to be able to lend more profitable mortgages. Banks became highly leveraged – high amount of debt to assets (deposits) This left them vulnerable to a downturn in the economy.
  • Growth Financial derivatives. The financial boom was helped by a new range of financial derivatives, such as credit default swaps and CDOs. These enabled mortgage companies to sell on their mortgage debt to other banks around the world. This enabled mortgage companies to finance a larger range of new loans.
  • See also: Understanding financial crisis
  • See also: What went wrong with US economy

Credit Crisis

  • From around 2006, US homeowners started to default on their mortgage because of a modest rise in interest rates. House prices started falling. Therefore, banks and mortgage companies started to lose money on their mortgage debt.
  • Because of mortgage defaults in the US, banks around the world started losing money and stopped lending to each other.
  • Full explanation of understanding credit crunch in 22 steps.

Economic Recession

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  • The credit crunch led to a fall in bank lending. This led to a decline in investment and lower consumer spending.
  • Also confidence was badly affected by news of bank failures. Consumers became more risk averse and sought to pay off debts rather than spend.
  • Falling house prices also led to a negative wealth effect and lower spending.
  • In 2008, rising oil prices also led to falling living standards, though this was quite minor.
  • The scale of bank losses were very high so there was a substantial fall in lending.
  • Despite cuts in interest rates, and expansionary fiscal policy, consumers were reluctant to spend because they were highly indebted. Also, despite low-interest rates, banks didn’t or couldn’t lend because they were short of cash.
  • This could be caused a ‘balance sheet recession’ which tends to be longer lasting.
  • See: causes of recession, with video on 2008/09 recession

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Economics of the Pound shop

When I was young (let say the 1980s) a Pound shop was a bit of a novelty.

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Visiting Morecambe, a seaside resort, there would be one or two Pound shops. I only remember being struck how low quality everything was, they were a bit tacky, mainly some useless novelty items and a stick of Blackpool Rock. No self-respecting middle class consumer would consider doing the bulk of their weekly shop at a Pound shop. But, in recent years, Pound shops have emerged as one of the fastest growing retail outlets in the UK. Suddenly the High Street is awash with shops offering everything for a £1. It raises some interesting economic questions:

  • How do Pound shops manage to sell so many goods for £1?
  • Why have they become so successful in recent years?
  • To what extent can they challenge traditional retail, like the Supermarket Giants?
  • Are they good for society or should we be worried about the proliferation of Pound Shops?
  • Is there growth sustainable?
  • What happens when inflation reduces the value of a Pound?

The success behind the Pound shops

The reason Pound shops can sell so many goods so cheaply is due to basic economic principles.

  • Buying in bulk. Bulk buying is a classic economy of scale. The more that you purchase, the lower the average costs involved. Large global Pound shop chains can buy whole containers directly from China at a much lower price than buying through distributors.
  • Cutting out distributors. Typically, retail shops will buy from a distributor, who in turn buys from the source. This saves shops having to deal with many suppliers. But, Pound shops can buy in sufficient bulk to be able to get direct from the manufacturers, often in China / Asia.
  • Small margins. Pound shops run on very small margins. Small margins only work with high volume and a tight control of costs. The high volume in turn enables firms to continue bulk buying at low cost.
  • Low cost encourages more purchases. On the BBC series about Pound Shop Wars – I liked the quote from one customer who said his ‘Pound shop was most expensive shop in town. – I always see something more to buy.’

Why have Pound shops become so successful in recent years?

  • Changing consumer patterns. The difficult few years have encouraged consumers to seek bargains and low prices. In the past five years, we have experienced cost -push inflation, stagnant real wages and falling living standards. The squeeze on disposable incomes have made Pound shops increasingly attractive.
  • Strength of Chinese manufacturing. The relentless growth of low cost Chinese manufacturing has enabled an increase in the choice of low cost manufactured goods.
  • External economies of scale. The growth of the whole industry has encouraged manufacturers to consider producing specifically for the Pound shop market. Manufacturers are increasingly prepared to prepare products which can fit in with the Pound Shop model. Also, the growth of Pound shop chains have enabled them to gain internal economies of scale as they grow – leading to lower average costs for the big chains.
  • Little internet competition. In contrast to big ticket items, like electronic goods, Pound shops face little competition from the internet. Amazon do relatively little trade for items costing a £1 – Post and packaging become a bigger % of the price the cheaper the good is. Many retail shops have closed down due to internet competition, these retail spaces have often been taken by Pound Shops.

Can they challenge the Supermarket Giants?

At £1, Pound shops are limited. They don’t sell fresh produce. They cannot offer a comprehensive range of goods. But savvy consumers will begin to cherry pick doing half their shop in Pound shops and buying the remainder elsewhere. It will definitely reduce the profits of supermarkets, though I can’t see them being replaced.

What is the impact on the growth of Pound shops?

  • For consumers, generally they are good for keeping prices low. They offer a range of cheap goods, but also put pressure on other supermarkets to match the low prices. It is reducing the market power of the big Tescos and Sainsbury’s
  • Big Pound retail shops are squeezing smaller independent retailers who cannot compete with the costs of Pound shops. Though they face competition from a range of other sources, such as supermarkets.
  • Pound shops can actually be controversial. Some towns, e.g. Harrogate have seen protests against Pound shops for fear that it ‘reduces the value of the town’. Pound shops give an impression of being low quality, cheap and cheerful. Not everyone likes the idea of a High Street being dominated by Pound shops, squeezing out higher class traditional shops.
  • They put pressure on suppliers to keep reducing their costs to remain competitive. It squeezes the profit margins of big traditional firms. 

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