Comparing different recessions

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The post 2008 recession has seen the longest decline in real GDP on record. 55 months after the peak output of 2008, the UK economy is still 4% below it’s peak. By contrast, in the same time frame during the early 1930s, the economy had recovered to be more than 2% higher than the 1930 peak.

The 2008-13 recession is longer lasting than even the great depression. Yet, curiously the 2008 recession has seen one of the least damaging rises in unemployment.

Firstly, a look at the percentage change in real GDP since peak output (just before when the recession started)

recessions-different-recoveries

For the first 15 months, the decline in real GDP is comparable to the great depression of the 1930s. The great depression shows a bigger fall in GDP (-8.0%) from peak. But, after 33 months, the economy recovered quite strongly in the early 1930s. The experience in 2008-13 shows a rare continued stagnation.

Unemployment in different recessions

unemployment-recessions

This shows that the rise in unemployment has been relatively muted during the 2008 recession. In 2008-12, There has been a surprising growth in private sector employment – despite weak private sector investment and spending.

See: reasons to explain the UK unemployment mystery

Hours worked in different recessions

total-hours-worked-different-recessions

This  shows that 17 quarters after the peak GDP, employment levels have fared better in 2008 than in other recessions. A rising population may be one factor, but the muted rise in unemployment suggests that the labour market in 2008-13 has proved more resilient and more flexible than many might have expected.

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Escape Velocity

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real-gdp-uk-2000-2019-actual-real

In physics, escape velocity refers to the speed necessary to break free of gravitational field without further propulsion. For example, to leave the earth’s gravitational pull requires approximately 40,320 km/h, or 25,000 mph. This was first achieved in 1959 by Luna I. Very interesting, but what does escape velocity mean in relation economics? It refers to …

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Implications of tax on bank deposits in Cyprus

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The problem: Cyprus debt to GDP ratio increased to 127% (Forbes) in the third quarter of 2012 Cyprus GDP growth in 2012 is estimated to be between -2 and -4% (estimate) The Cyprus economy has been hard hit by the slump in Greece – a major trading partner of Greece Cyprus made significant loans to …

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Do we really have austerity?

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Frequently we hear the argument that there is no austerity in the UK. Government spending has even continued to rise during the recession. Some would even go so far as to say that the modest rise in government spending is proof that expansionary fiscal policy is a failure, and we should actually be cutting government spending at a much faster rate.

This would be like the experiment that is happening in Europe.

cyclical-adjusted-budgets
Source: Krugman, P, NY Times: Delusions at EU –

As Paul Krugman says, that is a lot of fiscal tightening at exactly the time when the private sector is weak. No wonder we have European unemployment showing a similar rise:

Eu unemployment

Source: ECB

UK Austerity Lite

Changes in Government spending

  • Changes in government spending 2009-10   +4.6%
  • Changes in Government spending 2010-11  +0.3%
  • Change in government spending 2011-12   -1.5%

(BTW: I’m still chasing up HM Treasury for more statistics on real government spending + government spending as % of GDP. I find it hard to extract because the ONS doesn’t publish)

A critic may argue – government spending rose in 2010-11 so talk of austerity is misplaced.

But, in a recession, fiscal policy is supposed to be counter-cyclical. If the private sector is reducing investment, reducing spending and increasing saving, then there should be a significant increase in government spending to offset the fall in private sector expenditure.

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Index of labour costs per hour

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A new series from the ONS shows an index of labour costs per hour.

unit-labour-costs
Source:  ONS 

(this is an experimental series and looks as if it is not seasonally adjusted) Labour costs seem to be persistently highest in Q1.

Labour costs per hour are primarily comprised of 

1. Wage costs per hour

but also

2. Non-wage costs.

Non wage costs of labour include:

  • National Insurance Contributions, (NI)
  • Employee Pension Contributions,
  • Sickness, Maternity and Paternity Payments
  • Benefits in kind

Growth in wage costs per hour

index-labour-costs-hour-percent-change

As expected, since 2008, we have seen very modest increases in unit labour costs. In the last quarter Q4 2012, labour costs were actually 0.8% lower than the previous quarter in 2011.

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To what extent did EU recession cause UK recession?

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Readers Question: to what extent did the EU recession cause the UK recession?

In economics often several factors occur at the same time, and it is difficult to give a weighting to the importance of each factor. To some extent, people will emphasise the factors which best suits their outlook / beliefs.

It is no surprise that the government prefer to blame the double dip UK recession on ‘unavoidable weakness in the European economy’. It is similarly no surprise the opposition blame the government’s austerity approach adopted in 2010.

eu-recession

Source: EU GDP

In theory, the European recession of 2012, will effect the UK economy in the following ways:

  • Lower export demand. With Europe entering recession, they will buy less goods and services, including less demand for UK exports. UK exports to Europe account for around 13% of GDP and so it is reasonably significant. Lower export demand to Europe can have a knock on effect to other related industries, and a possible negative multiplier effect – causing a bigger final fall in real GDP.
  • Reduced confidence. Europe sliding into recession will harm business and consumer confidence. With our main trading partner struggling, firms are less likely to invest in increasing capacity. Also the financial instability in Europe is making banks more nervous and reluctant to lend.
  • Lower inward investment. A recession in Europe will create a disincentive for European firms to invest in the UK leading to lower growth.

 

Evaluation

But, how important a factor is the European recession?

1. Exports to Europe have not fallen significantly

exports-eu-non-eu

UK exports to the EU increased between 2009 and 2012  by 6.5%. Exports to non-EU countries increased at a faster rate. During this period, the UK current account deficit increased – because demand for imports increased at a faster rate, and if Europe had not gone into recession, we may have seen a bigger increase in exports. But, overall this still suggests that falling exports to Europe were not the main cause of the recession. 

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UK industrial and manufacturing output 2013

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  • In Jan 2013, UK industrial production was 2.9% lower than Jan 2012.
  • Manufacturing on a seasonally adjusted basis fell by 3.0% in January 2013 compared with January 2012.
  • Industrial production is over 15% lower than at the start of the recession in 2007.

percent-change-industry-manufacturing

  • Industrial output (production industries = Mining + manufacturing + energy + water)
  • Industrial output has been particularly hit by a decline in mining. Mining tends to be more volatile. Arguably manufacturing gives a better guide to the underlying strength of the economy.

industrial-manufacturing-index-2007-12

Industrial production is lower than the 2009 low. Manufacturing output is struggling to recover. Industrial production is more than 15% lower than at the beginning of the crisis.

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Paradox of toil

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effect-increased-supply-wages

The paradox of toil states that under certain conditions if people wish to work longer hours, this can cause falling real wages and rising unemployment. The paradox is that individuals have an incentive to work longer, but if everybody wants to work longer hours, it can actually cause unemployment. The paradox of toil only works …

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