It’s a week before the Budget, but UK debt just passed £3 trillion, on the same morning as inflation jumped to 3.5%. It creates a real headache for the Chancellor, but ironically, annual borrowing is falling (very marginally). The government borrowed £4.4 billion less than it did for the same period last year. Even debt …
Which G7 country will go bankrupt first? It won’t be the one with the most debt. Japan might owe 199% of GDP but it still borrows more cheaply than anyone. France owes 118% and pays more than Italy, Spain or Greece. Eliminating five Japan has government debt of 199% of GDP, the highest in the …
Diesel has passed £2 a litre in Britain for the first time. In February it was £1.41. It is not because the world ran out of oil. Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, Gulf exports are back close to pre-war levels, and Brent crude is around $102 a barrel. Crude has partially …
Back in January 2021, you could lend the UK government £100 for thirty years — the safest investment there is. Today that £100 is worth £35. Government bonds have lost 60% of their value, and many fear the sell-off isn’t over.
US yields have just hit 5.2% and UK yields 5.4%, the highest since before the financial crisis. So why are borrowing costs back at 2007 levels when the economy looks nothing like 2007? And why is your mortgage going up when the Bank of England hasn’t moved rates?
Update: since this was written, the White House has denied it is preparing a 90-day ban, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright says nobody is considering a flat ban. But Trump and Bessent have both said restrictions are being looked at, and the economics below apply just as much to a partial ban. US diesel has …
For decades, Germany was Europe’s economic miracle. Low inflation, high growth and a reputation for the best manufactured goods in the world. German engineering was part of the national identity. But, in recent years, it has really struggled, and the political fallout is becoming quite serious. Germany is at the heart of European economy and …
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope… But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” This was said in the early 1990s, by an adviser to Bill Clinton. Thirty years later, rising bond …
Back in early March, in anticipation of rising jet fuel prices, I rushed to buy two air tickets to New York (August and October). The cheapest was Norse Air £500 August (very good deal) and £400 for October with a 3% discount for paying by bank transfer. I did buy with bank transfer but for …