There have been a couple of thoughtful pieces from Paul Krugman challenging the consensus that Brexit will have very high short-term economic cost. Krugman’s argument is: There is uncertainty, but uncertainty on itself is not enough to create a significant demand side shock. In fact, when the uncertainty is resolved, we could have a mini-boom …
The UK saw net migration of 330,000 in the last year. If net migration were to fall significantly – how would this affect the UK economy? Net migration is generally difficult to predict, but there are good reasons to assume this is likely to fall in future years. Net migration will likely fall because: Climate …
Negative bond yields (e.g. -0.04% on 2 year gilt) mean that those who hold the bond to maturity will receive less than the value of the bond. A negative bond yield is usually very rare. In normal circumstances, investors require some yield (interest) to give an incentive to buy government bond. There is no good …
In this recent post we saw some of the economic and political challenges of allowing free movement of labour within an economic block, such as the EU28. To what extent can the government / EU mitigate these negative impacts, whilst retaining free movement of labour? 1. Funding related to number of people. One issue of …
Readers Question: I was just wondering what recapitalisation of the banks actually involves? Recapitalisation involves a major change in the way a bank is funded. This could come about through issuing new shares or loan from a government. Essentially recapitalisation involves providing the bank with new capital, e.g. the government agree to buy new shares. …
The ‘pension time bomb’ refers to how demographic changes will cause a rise in the percentage of people entitled to a pension (both state and private). An ageing population leads to smaller workforce, more spending on pensions (and healthcare) and could require higher taxes to meet spending commitments. . Some argue this is a serious …
Will the UK’s decision to leave the EU cause recession? Factors which could cause Brexit recession Loss of confidence. Many foreign investors may be deterred from investing in the UK because of uncertainties that they may have higher costs for accessing the Single Market. This decline in investment could lead to fall in aggregate demand. …
The accelerator effect examines the effect on levels of investment from a change in economic output (or demand for a product). The simple accelerator model suggests that capital investment is a function of output. If there is an increase in demand and economic output, investment will rise to meet the expected demand. The simple accelerator …