Is the Euro really a failure or is it a failure of policy?

Readers Questions: Could you not also argue not that the Euro is a failure but that it’s members/ECB are pursuing the wrong policy? Predictions of the death of the Euro seem to have been much exaggerated & surely Europe has the potential to be a world economic superpower to rival the US or China? It …

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Should we worry about a trade deficit?

us-trade-deficit-bbc

A trade deficit implies the value of imports of goods is greater than exports. (M>X) The trade deficit is an important component of the current account on the balance of payments. Sometimes people use a trade deficit and a current account interchangeably, but in the UK this is not correct. The current account also includes …

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UK’s Target for Economic Growth

Readers Question:   What is the UK’s target for economic growth? Economic growth is the annual % increase in national output (Real GDP) The UK doesn’t have an explicit target for economic growth (for example, we have an inflation target of CPI 2%+/-1.) However, the government will aim to achieve economic growth close to the …

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Are UK house price rises sustainable or are we heading for a crash?

Readers comment on – House prices stats Excuse me for pointing out the obvious, but why are those ratios (House price to incomes) unsustainable if interest rates stay low? It’s the ratio of house-price-multiplied-by-interest-rate to earnings that determines affordability, not ratio of house price to earnings. If rates fall as prices rise, then the first …

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Euro revision notes

The Euro is the single European countries adopted by 18 out of 28 EU countries. The UK has not joined. The Euro involves: Common currency Common monetary policy – Eurozone interest rates set by the ECB in Brussels. Some fiscal rules, e.g. The Fiscal Compact (2012) limiting the amount of government borrowing (a balanced budget …

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The Euro and deflation

A look at the effects of how an over-valuation of the exchange rate can cause deflation. Readers Question: does an appreciation in the exchange rate cause deflation? An appreciation does tend to reduce inflationary pressures. This is because after after an appreciation in the exchange rate: Price of imports will fall, causing a fall in …

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UK unemployment threshold of 7%

Readers Question Why is the forward guidance threshold set at 7% unemployment and how does this affect the threshold for inflation? The MPC have a remit to target inflation of CPI = 2% +/-1. But, the MPC also consider wider issues of economic growth and unemployment. UK Real GDP is still lower than the level …

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