Is it a good idea to invest in gold during a recession?

gold

There was a global recession in 1974, 1980-81, 1991-92 and 2007. Readers Question: In this period of recession, is gold a safe investment? Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment, especially during a time of financial uncertainty, high inflation, depreciating exchange rates and economic recession. The main reason is that gold has an intrinsic …

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Tax Tolerance

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Definition of tax tolerance – The amount of tax that a population is willing to tolerate and put up with. In the western world, there are strong political movements to resist higher tax and commit to lower tax rates. The amount of tax a nation is willing to accept depends on many factors. For example, …

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Economic impact of Margaret Thatcher

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A look at the economic and social impact of Mrs Thatcher’s economic policies.

  Summary of Thatcher’s Economic policies

  • Belief in the desirability of free markets over government intervention. E.g. pursuing policies of privatisation and deregulation.
  • The pursuit of supply-side policies to increase efficiency and productivity.
  • Reducing the power of trades unions and increased labour market flexibility.
  • Financial deregulation, e.g. building societies becoming profit-making banks.
  • Reducing higher rates of marginal income tax to increase incentives to work.
  • Ending state subsidies for major manufacturing companies.
  • Encouraging home ownership and share ownership.
  • Targeting money supply and monetarist policies to reduce inflation of late 1979. Monetarism was effectively abandoned by 1984.
  • Joining EU Single Market in 1988

The Economic Impact of Margaret Thatcher

When Mrs Thatcher came to power, she sought to

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  • Reduce inflation – running at around 14% in 1979 (after periods of 20% plus in the late 1970s)
  • Reduce budget deficit.
  • Increase efficiency of the economy
  • Reduce the power of trades unions

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Monetarist policies

On coming to power, the Conservatives followed a policy of Monetarism – seeking to control the money supply in order to control inflation. This involved higher interest rates and higher taxes. This did reduce inflation to 5% by 1983, but at the cost of a deep recession and unemployment rising to over 3 million.

In 1981, 365 economists signed a letter to the Times newspaper arguing the government should reverse its economic policy and seek an end to the recession. This caused Mrs Thatcher to make her famous speech to the Conservative Party conference of 1981.

“To those waiting with bated breath for that favourite media catchphrase, the U-turn, I have only one thing to say: You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning! (BBC)

It was great politics, but the economic cost was a significant decline in GDP and unemployment staying at nearly 3 million until the mid-1980s.

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Trade unions

In the 1970s, days lost to trade union strikes were at all-time highs. It was feared that poor industrial relations were a key factor in holding back industry. Thatcher was determined to reduce the power of trades unions and end industrial disputes from costing British industry.

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Trade union membership fell in the 1980s, forever changing British unions.

There is no doubt that industrial disputes were a real problem in the 1970s (though it should be remembered there are always two sides to industrial disputes – not just unions). Apart from the coal mine strike of 1984, days lost to strikes fell significantly in the 1980s, and there have been improved industrial relations.

To some extent Mrs Thatcher can claim some success, e.g. ending the right to secondary picketing, ending closed shops, compulsory ballots. But, also, the decline in trade union power was also caused by other factors, such as the decline in British manufacturing, British heavy industry and the rise in unemployment.

See more at Trade union density

The coal miners

An iconic moment of Mrs Thatcher’s early policies was the Miners strike of 1984. She successful outmanoeuvred the miners and fundamentally weakened the NUM – no more would the mining unions be able to bring down a government like in the 1970s. The strike was bitter, leaving lasting scars, and miners see the decline of the industry as evidence that their fears over pit closures were true. But, the mining industry had been declining since the 1920s. Even in 1945, half a million people worked in coal mines. Today, the figure is less than 10,000 and is being replaced by cheap imports and other forms of electricity. (see: decline of coal mines) It is hard to justify, given the environmental cost of coal, that a government should have subsidised a declining industry.

UK Unemployment in the 1980s

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Unemployment rose sharply at the start of the 1980s, due to deflationary monetary and fiscal policy. The recession of 1981 and decline of heavy industry also caused a rise in structural unemployment – even in the boom years of the mid-1980s, the unemployment rate remained high. Even in the late 1980s, unemployment was over 2 million. A significant factor was the structural and geographical unemployment caused by industrial decline.

More details on this period at The Economy under Mrs Thatcher 1979-84 

Lawson Boom of the 1980s

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After 1985, the UK economy grew very rapidly. Economic growth reached 4-5% a year. This was well above the UK’s long-run trend rate. The Conservatives felt there had been a supply side miracle. But, inflation increased to 9%. And in 1990, the boom came to an end, leading to another recession of 1991-92.

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From 1985, the UK economic boom and growth in consumer spending cause a deterioration in the current account deficit. In the Lawson boom, the deficit reached 5% of GDP.

Supply-side policies

A key feature of Thatcher economics was the implementation of supply-side policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of the economy. These policies included:

  • Reducing the power of trades unions
  • Privatisation of state-owned assets from BP and BT to gas, water and electricity.
  • Deregulation of monopolies, such as gas and electricity
  • Deregulation of the financial sector, e.g. enabling building societies to become profit-making banks.

Housing Market

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A key philosophy of Mrs Thatcher was the idea of a ‘home owning democracy’. During the 1980s, homeownership rates rose. In particular, the policy of selling off council homes to residents helped to increase homeownership rates. It is worth noting that homeownership rates had been rising since the late 1960s. In the 1970s, we see a similar trend in house prices to the 1980s. (1970s housing market) Also in recent years, the percentage of home ownership rates has fallen, due to house prices becoming unaffordable for many.

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  • Home Ownership – Mrs Thatcher encouraged a belief in home-ownership. Many Council houses were bought by tenants. It led to a rise in home-ownership rates.

    home-ownership-rates
    UK Social Trends 20th Century. Research Paper 99/111. 21 December 1999

House prices in the late 1980s boomed, with record house price inflation, especially in the south-east. This created a powerful feel-good effect and contributed to the Lawson boom of the late 1980s. But, the growth in house prices was also unsustainable and prices fell after 1990.

Another feature of the 1980s housing market was a slowdown in house-building compared to the previous decades; this contributed to housing shortages in 1990s and 2000s.

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See more details on

 

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What could cause the next recession?

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A recession is a period of negative economic growth – a fall in output accompanied by rising unemployment. Recessions tend to occur in cycles of 8-10 years, though there is no hard and fast rule. Attempting to predict a recession by the number of years is not guaranteed to work. Recessions in UK Source: ONS …

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Global trade and advantages of local buying

Global trade has become so efficient that it is often cheaper for firms to import goods from across the other side of the globe rather than from local, domestic producers.  Should we favour local buying or just buy the cheapest from across the globe. Advantages of local buying Lower carbon emissions due to less transport …

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Would an increase in savings help the economy?

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The savings ratio a big determinant of economic activity. Consumer spending accounts for 63% of GDP – dwarfing other areas, such as government spending, investment and exports. A rise in the savings ratio can have a very significant impact on economic activity.

A blogger, mentioned a minister, Liam Fox calling for more savings.

Former cabinet minister Liam Fox has urged the government to freeze public spending for five years and use the savings to cut taxes and the deficit.

Stamp duty and taxes on bank account interest could be reduced to help create a “savings investment culture”, the ex-defence secretary said. (BBC)

In principle, there’s nothing wrong with a  ‘savings investment culture’. Higher savings can help finance higher levels of investment and boost productivity over the longer term.

saving=investment

  • In economics, we say the level of savings equals the level of investment. Investment needs to be financed from saving.
  • If people save more, it enables the banks to lend more to firms for investment.
  • An economy where savings are very low means that the economy is choosing short-term consumption over long-term investment. To starve the economy of investment can lead to future bottlenecks and shortages.
  • The Harrod-Domar model of economic growth suggests the level of savings is a key factor in determining economic growth rates.

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Short-term rise in savings

Whilst in the long-term, savings are an important factor in determining investment. In the short-term, a rapid rise in savings could cause a fall in consumer spending which can lead to a recession.

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Since consumer spending accounts for 63% of GDP, this rapid increase in savings and a fall in spending was a significant cause of the 2008/09 recession. The continued reluctance of consumers to spend is a significant factor in the continued economic stagnation.

In this circumstance, a rapid rise in saving does not cause an equivalent rise in investment. Although banks see a rise in their deposits, they are reluctant to lend to firms – because the economic outlook is pessimistic. Also, in a recession, banks may not want to invest – even if banks are willing to lend at low rates. A recession, usually sees a sharp fall in investment.

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At this point, a slight fall in the savings rate and corresponding rise in consumer spending would help promote economic recovery.

Paradox of thrift

It’s a bit of a paradox. We tend to think of savings as good and virtuous; and at the right time, it is. But, if everyone saves at once, it can cause a drop in aggregate demand and cause a recession. Keynes called it the Paradox of Thrift.

There is also the paradox of savings – people save more when they think it’s a bad time to save and save less when it’s a good time to save!

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Winners and losers from globalisation

winners-and-losers-from-globalisation

Globalisation involves the increased integration and interdependence of the global economy. Since the 1960s, there has been an increased rate of globalisation, which has been characterised by rising trade, rising exports as % of GDP, greater movement of labour and capital, and an increased interdependence of the global economy. Globalisation has benefitted some countries more …

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Different Government Economic Priorities

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One of the first lessons in economics is the idea of opportunity cost. If you pursue one choice, it means you can’t do another option. The government faces countless decisions based on this. For example, the government could spend more on health care, but the opportunity cost would be lower spending on education. We could …

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