French Budget Fails To Pass – Why Markets are Worried

France now borrows money more expensively than Greece. Greece is the country that defaulted in 2012, where borrowing costs nearly touched 40%, and whose finances were run by the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB for the best part of a decade. But now it is France considered the sick man of Europe. And …

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The AI Bubble Is in the Bond Market

Last week Alphabet had its worst day since it went public in 2004. The shares fell more than 12% and roughly $500 billion came off the company’s value in a single session. The simple story is that AI stocks are expensive, investors are nervous, the bubble is popping. But, share prices are only one part …

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Facts about Global Poverty

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In 2024, 10.1% of the world population — about 824 million people — lived in extreme poverty, on less than $3.00 a day (WB) In 2024, roughly 18% of the world population lived on less than $4.20 a day, down from 57% in 1981 (WB) Global extreme poverty is projected to fall only marginally, from …

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UK Debt Interest Payments Threaten Budget

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It’s a week before the Budget, but UK debt just passed £3 trillion, on the same morning as inflation jumped to 3.5%. It creates a real headache for the Chancellor, but ironically, annual borrowing is falling (very marginally). The government borrowed £4.4 billion less than it did for the same period last year. Even debt …

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Which Country Will Go Bust First?

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Which G7 country will go bankrupt first? It won’t be the one with the most debt. Japan might owe 199% of GDP but it still borrows more cheaply than anyone. France owes 118% and pays more than Italy, Spain or Greece.  Eliminating five Japan has government debt of 199% of GDP, the highest in the …

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Britain Has 40 Days of Diesel Left

Diesel has passed £2 a litre in Britain for the first time. In February it was £1.41. It is not because the world ran out of oil. Tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again, Gulf exports are back close to pre-war levels, and Brent crude is around $102 a barrel. Crude has partially …

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Bond Meltdown – What is Going on?

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Back in January 2021, you could lend the UK government £100 for thirty years — the safest investment there is. Today that £100 is worth £35. Government bonds have lost 60% of their value, and many fear the sell-off isn’t over.

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US yields have just hit 5.2% and UK yields 5.4%, the highest since before the financial crisis. So why are borrowing costs back at 2007 levels when the economy looks nothing like 2007? And why is your mortgage going up when the Bank of England hasn’t moved rates?

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