Trade weighted index

A trade weighted index is used to measure the effective value of an exchange rate against a basket of currencies. The importance of other currencies depends on the percentage of trade done with that country. For example in calculating the trade weighted index of the Pound Sterling, the most important exchange rate would be with …

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Germany’s current account surplus

In 2015, the German current account surplus surged to 8.5% of GDP. A record level and a surplus which has implications for the Eurozone and global economy. Source: Bundesbank The surplus is primarily due to the surplus on trade in goods. Though in recent years, there has also been a surplus in primary income. This …

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How far will the Pound Sterling fall?

Readers question: How much will the Pound devalue? Since the start of 2016, the Pound has been depreciating against other currencies – especially the US dollar. Since Brexit end of June, the Pound has fallen another 10% heading to a 30 year low against the US dollar. Pound Sterling against the Dollar This is daily …

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Mistakes of the EU

The EU has many achievements of which it can rightly claim. Long period of peace and prosperity, unrivalled in European history. Secured transition to democracy for countries such as Spain and post-Communist countries in Eastern Europe Free trade and free movement  has helped improve economic growth and living standards. Working on European wide problems, such …

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What they didn’t tell you during EU referendum debate

Some thing that weren’t always made clear during EU referendum. Economic experts are worth listening to. A string of senior ‘leave’ politicians lined up to say you shouldn’t listen to economists making warnings about short term and long-term damage to economy. But, just because economic analysis is inconvenient to your point of view, doesn’t alter …

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Does a devaluation help the economy?

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A devaluation (depreciation) occurs when the exchange rate falls in value. This causes exports to be cheaper and imports to be more expensive. In theory, it can help increase economic growth, though it may cause inflation. In theory, a devaluation will cause the following to happen: The price of UK exports will be lower in …

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Political and economic concerns about deficits

In the 1960s, a big political issue was the size of the deficit. Not the budget deficit, but the current account deficit on the balance of payments. In recent years, worries about the balance of payments (current account deficit) have slipped from the political and media agenda. However, we have a very strong importance attached …

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Economic uncertainty

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Readers Question: What is meant by economic uncertainty? Economic uncertainty implies the future outlook for the economy is unpredictable. When people talk of economic uncertainty, they usually imply there is a high likelihood of negative economic events. Economic uncertainty could involve. Predictions of a higher and more volatile inflation rate. (inflation uncertainty) Concerns over economic …

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