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The housing market is influenced by the state of the economy, interest rates, real income and changes in the size of the population. As well as these demand-side factors, house prices will be determined by available supply. With periods of rising demand and limited supply, we will see rising house prices, rising rents and increased …
Cost-push inflation is caused by higher costs of production, such as rising oil prices, higher nominal wages, and increased commodity prices. To reduce this kind of inflation, the government can pursue deflationary monetary policy and/or supply side policies. But, in truth, it is difficult to reduce cost-push inflation because higher interest rates are likely to …
Bottlenecks refer to the situation where firms are unable to meet demand because of delays, shortages and lack of spare capacity. Bottlenecks can occur from a spike in demand or disruptions to supply. They can lead to higher prices, inflation, shortages of goods and even lower economic growth. For many years, we have grown accustomed …
The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual output (Y) and potential output (Yf). Output gap = Y- Yf A Negative Output Gap occurs when actual output is less than potential output gap. In a recession, a fall in Real GDP causes a negative output gap. However, it can become difficult to …
The Sahm rule is a way of predicting a recession from changes in the unemployment rate. “(The) Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.” (Sahm Rule) …
Definition of Household savings ratio: The percentage of disposable income that is saved. (1) Total savings = Disposable income – Household consumption UK Saving Ratio Latest UK household savings ratio: 2021 = 10% But, by 2021 Q4 the saving ratio had fallen to 6.2% By contrast, the average savings ratio in the past 54 years …
Recessions (a fall in real GDP) are primarily caused by a fall in aggregate demand (AD). A demand-side shock could occur due to several factors, such as A financial crisis. If banks have a shortage of liquidity, they reduce lending and this reduces investment. A rise in interest rates – increases the cost of borrowing …