Economic Growth UK

  • Economic growth measures the change in real GDP (national income adjusted for inflation, ONS call it chained volume measure)
  • Economic growth in Q3 2013 was 0.8%.
  • In volume terms, GDP was 1.9% higher in Q3 2013 compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • In Q3 2013 GDP was estimated to be 2.0% below the peak in Q1 2008. From peak to trough in 2009, the economy shrank by 7.2%.
  • In current prices (adjusted for inflation) GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Q1 2013 and Q2 2013.

Recent UK Economic Growth

economic growth

Source: ONS

Raw data:  National income accounts | real GDP | % change quarterly |

National income accounts

  • The UK entered recession in 2008. We experienced a partial recovery in 2010 and 2011. But, by Q1 2012, the UK was officially back in recession.
  • Economic growth in Q3 2012 was 1.0% – helped by an Olympic ticket sales boost.
  • But, in Q4 2012, the economy went back into negative growth. Manufacturing fell 1.5%, service sector growth was flat, and construction rose 0.3% in the final quarter. In
  • In Q1, 2013, growth was 0.3% narrowly avoiding a triple dip recession. Since then economic growth in 2013 has been positive showing signs of a sustained recovery.
  • The recovery has been stronger in the service sector than manufacturing and industrial output.

It is worth bearing in mind that sometimes economic growth statistics get revised at a later stage.

Output Gap UK

real-gdp-00-13q3

An illustration of how actual GDP has fallen behind the trend growth of GDP, since the start of 2008.

Two Decades of Volatile Growth in the UK.

UK - econ growth

More detail of this period:

Economic Growth and Unemployment

Economic Growth and Inflation

inflation-growth-90-12

further reading: is inflation caused by economic growth?

Notes on Economic Growth

 

Historical Economic Growth

economic growth

Volatile growth following world wars and period of recession in the 1920s and 1930s.

Post war Economic growth

economic growth

Post war Boom and Busts in the UK.

global growth rates

Global growth rates Oct 2012

uk-us-eurozone growth rates

Source: IMF | OECD

Economic Growth rates in EU

italy-portugal-spain-uk

france-italy-germany-ireland growth rates
UK recession 2009US economic Growth

us economic growth

Related statistics

Note on statistics

  • The ONS produce statistics for chained volume measure of GDP. This is effectively real GDP
  • GDP at market prices doesn’t take into account inflation.

See: ONS datasets for GDP

10 Responses to Economic Growth UK

  1. Jon Abrams October 26, 2012 at 10:35 am #

    Hi Tejvan
    Thanks for the very useful analysis.
    I was wondering if you have any graphs plotting UK GDP and Unemployment against other economies which have monetary independence and their own currency.

    I often see graphs comparing the US with the UK. Are there any which include Sweden, Norway, Switzerland and other countries

    thanks

    Jon

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