UK Inflation Rate and Graphs

Current UK Inflation Rate

  • CPI inflation rate:  3.0% (headline rate) CPI – D7G7 at ONS
  • (page updated 17 October 2017)

Other measures of inflation

Cost-push inflationary factors

In 2017, UK has seen a rise in cost-push inflationary pressures. This has caused a spike in inflation, despite relatively weak economic growth. Cost-push inflationary factors have come from:

  • Devaluation in Sterling. This makes imports more expensive and has fed through into higher input prices for manufacturers.
  • Rise in petrol prices in early part of 2017.
  • Rise in food and recreational goods.

What factors are affecting current inflation rates?

UK inflation post-war

Despite temporary cost-push inflationary factors in 2017, underlying inflationary pressures remain muted – at least compared to the past four decades.

The current UK inflation rate compares favourable to much of the post-war period. The 1970s frequently saw double digit inflation (due to global inflationary pressures from rising oil prices + wage growth). In 2017, the annual CPI is just above the inflation target of 2%.

This is due to:

  • Low worldwide inflationary expectations. Europe is experiencing very low rates of inflation.
  • Fall in global inflation rates since 2007.
  • Supermarket price wars, with big chains, such as Tesco and Sainsbury attempting to maintain market share from Pound Shops and discounters like Lidl.
  • Weaker commodity price growth.
  • Fiscal austerity – many government departments still seeing spending squeezed. In particular public sector pay restraint of 1% has reduced real wages for public sector workers.
  • Private sector wage growth still weak. This has limited costs of firms and limited growth in aggregate demand.
  • Potential negative output gap, with real GDP still around 10-15% below pre-crisis trend rate.

Inflation and wages

  • Real wages = nominal wages – inflation.
  • Usually, during a period of economic growth – wage growth is higher than inflation, this leads to positive real wage growth.
  • During the economic recession of 2009-13 – we had a prolonged period of negative real wage growth. Wages rising at a slower rate than inflation.
  • The end of 2014 saw the first signs of renewed wage growth and positive real wage growth.

inflation-wagesSince 2017, the trend of negative real wage growth has resumed. This low nominal wage growth is one of the major costs of inflation rate of 3%.

See more at UK wage growth

Inflation since 1990

inflation

  • Inflation rose over 8% in the late 1980s due to the Lawson boom, which was a period of unsustainable economic growth.
  • Inflation was low in the period 1992 to 2007. This was a period known as the ‘great moderation’
  • The inflation of 2008 and 2012 was due to cost-push factors (devaluation and rising commodity prices)

Inflation and interest rates

inflation-interest-rates

The Bank of England are responsible for monetary policy. They target an inflation rate of CPI = 2% +/-1. They also take into account economic growth.

Usually, with an inflation rate above 2%, you would expect the Bank of England to increase base rates to reduce inflationary pressures. However, since early 2009, the Bank of England kept base rates close to 0.5%. This is because the Bank of England are worried about the depth of the recession. They argued that the increase in inflation (e.g. during 2011) was due to temporary cost push factors, such as taxes, commodity prices and effects of devaluation. Therefore, they tolerated CPI inflation above target rather than risk a deeper recession.

CPI and RPI

RPI is still published by the ONS, but it is no longer designated as a national statistic.

CPI-RPI-inflation

RPI includes more items, such as housing and mortgage interest rate costs. It is calculated in a different way to CPIH. See: Definitions of CPI, RPI, RPIX

The ONS also publish a new measure RPIJ – which involves a new method of calculating RPI

Producer inflation

producer-inflation

The producer price index measures the price of manufactured goods as they leave the factory gate.

 

There is also an input price index which measures cost of raw materials. These are both a guide to future inflationary pressures.

See more at: Input and producer prices

Inflation v Unemployment

unemployment-vs-inflation

Unemployment and Inflation

Historical Inflation

UK inflation since 1918

UK inflation 1918-2011

Note the period of deflation in the 1920s / 30s

The highest periods of inflation were:

  • During the two world wars
  • 1970s inflation

UK Money Supply

Notes and coins is known as a narrow money supply (old measure M0)

notes-coins-m4-inflation

 

 M4 Money supply

M4 money supply is a measure of notes and coins in circulation, plus bank deposits. It is known as a broad money supply and is a guide to underlying economic activity and bank lending.

m4-money-supply

click to enlarge-  Source: Money databases at Bank of England | see also Money supply and inflation

Fall in M4 Lending – helps to explain why Bank of England didn’t increase interest rates during 2011 – despite high headline inflation.

Further Reading on Inflation

5 thoughts on “UK Inflation Rate and Graphs

  1. Including tuition fees gives a false impression. If they were not paid by students/parents they would be paid by taxpayers. The real issue is whether the introduction of fees increases quality and/or efficiency in education.

    The hike in fees will be offset by reduced taxes (at some time).

    1. If only we had maintained the levels between 1983-89; i.e. keeping inflation at a similar level to GDP we wouldn’t be where we are now!
      Wether growth is sustainable or not, you can’t have infinite growth in a finite system, fact!

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