Is it Worth Moving from UK?

Things can appear pretty bleak. We have warnings of a collapsing economy, record waiting lists, crumbling infrastructure and rising homelessness. The government might have changed, but the problems seem the same. Wages have stagnated and young people have low expectations of their future. It wasn’t always like this. In the post-war period, real wages were rising, homes were affordable, and there was a sense of economic optimism. Now young people are more likely to be dreaming of moving to another country, though even that has become more difficult since Brexit.

Time to Leave UK and Live Elsewhere?

Watch this video on YouTube

It is said that an Englishman’s home is his castle. And the ideal of homeownership is deeply rooted in the national consciousness. The problem is that these days an Englishman’s home is more likely to be a small, crowded outbuilding beyond the castle walls, with extortionate rents. The change in house prices is stark. A 1,000% rise in prices since the early 1980s. Whereas house prices used to be 3 times income, they are now closer to 8 times. Homeownership rates have dropped and are now one of the lowest in rates in the developed world. If you can’t buy, the privately rented sector is a disaster with supply failing to keep up with demand. The OECD suggest that the UK has one of the worst housing markets in the world. Rents as a share of consumption are second only to Finland. In Poland, rents are just 6% compared to over 20% in the UK. No wonder Polish migrants are returning to Poland. The UK housing market is increasingly unequal, those who bought more than 10 years ago, are sitting on equity gains and relatively cheap housing costs. But, for those who missed out, housing costs can take up a large share of income. For those who need to spend more than 40% of income on housing costs, the UK is only second to New Zealand. At least in New Zealand, they have implemented a policy which actually increased supply. A change to zoning laws saw a big surge in supply in Auckland. The UK has one of lowest rates of housing per population. The government have well-meaning targets to increase supply, but there is widespread scepticism they will be achieved. In this case the scepticism may be well justified, a lack of skilled labour, reluctant homebuilders and rising costs all make it unlikely.

Brexit

For many young people who didn’t vote in 2016, Brexit took away the freedom of movement to work in Europe, and slowed down economic growth, but with seamingly no benefits to compensate. Brexit was the biggest vote of the generation, but it was a vote primarily of old people, and changing demographics have left the majority of the population regretting this decision which apparently can’t be changed. The one big motivation for the Brexit vote was high levels of net migration in the run up to the 2016 vote. Yet, the greatest irony of Brexit is that it led to a surge in net migration levels. Just recently the ONS revised net migration figures to a record 906,000 for the year to June 2023. Net migration has pros and cons for the economy. But, you don’t have to be an economist to be aware that a net increase of 900,000 people in one year, is far faster than the ability of the country to build infrastructure and housing. Despite rising interest rates and weak economic growth, rents soared in the past 3 years. A reflection of a fundamental mismatch between supply and demand. By the way, one reason for the rise in net migration is that people are emigrating much less. Post-Brexit, there are far fewer options, should you want to leave the UK.

Labour Shortages

Another cited reason for high migration is various labour market shortages. A big problem in the UK is the rise in long-term sickness, it is particularly concerning young people reporting higher levels of mental health issues, which are leading to falling participation rates. The number of sick days taken off has increased 55% since 2019. It’s not because sick pay is generous, in fact, the UK has one of the least generous sick pay rates amongst advanced countries.

Shortage of workers

This is big problem for firms who struggle to recruit sufficient workers. Immigration is a temporary stop-gap for professions, but as well as filling in vacancies, migration increases demand in the economy so the fundamental shortages are not really addressed. The NHS faces a continued shortage of workers, which is not surprising when you consider nurses’ real pay fell 8% between 2010 and 2022. No wonder, young people don’t want to train for valuable professions like nursing. But, this short-sightedness has been expensive in 2023, the cost of temporary staff rose 18% to over £10bn. This short-sightedness is a recurring theme in many aspects of public life. Public investment has fallen since the 1970s, leading school building crumblings, congestion in transport and underinvestment in energy production. It leaves the UK with some of the worst travel times in Europe and the most expensive electricity in the OECD, no wonder UK industry is struggling in this new electricity age.

Health

If there is one thing that unites the British it is a sense of pride in the NHS, the idea that everyone can get health treatment regardless of class and income. Everyone has stories of amazing health care, which saved a loved one, but unfortunately, people increasingly now have a personal story of the nightmare 24 hours in A&E, or an interminable wait for an operation. Shortfalls in investment combined with rising demand, higher sickness and then Covid were all a perfect storm, leading to record waiting lists. The tragedy is that the model of universal health care has much going for it, it is better than the American model which leaves millions with medical bankruptcy and declining life expectancy. But, bureaucratic mismanagement and lack of investment have diluted a service which used to be the envy of the world. GP services were cut causing a disaster in A&E. Overall satisfaction with the NHS had fallen from 80% in 2009 to 34% last year.

The UK has a track record of cutting government spending on one area only to see it increase elsewhere, the government used to spend money on building houses, now it spends money subsidising private landlords.

Growth of human resource managers

Whilst many skilled trades like doctors, plumbers, and electricians are in short-supply, the UK has seen a 45% growth in the number of human resource managers. It has grown from 0.4% of workforce to 1.6%. In fact the UK is nearly world-beating in the share of human resource managers. We’ve become very good at setting regulations and compliance targets, which if badly implemented can stifle creativity and a sense of agency. This growth has also coincided with a flatlining of labour productivity, which is a major cause of the UK’s current demise. It is perhaps unfair to blame Human Resource management, when there are so many other factors at play -, but for young people, there is a sense that the job market is not particularly attractive, relatively low-paid work, insecure, but often lacking in meaning and motivation.

Of course, we can look at the past with rose tinted spectacles. In the 1970s, industrial relations were at rock bottom, strikes beset the market and many of the old jobs like coal mining and factory workers were even harder than working as an amazon delivery driver or warehouse worker.

Would moving really solve anything?

And would moving to another country really solve the problem? Is the grass greener on the other side. The nature of the job market is similar in other countries. The US has a booming job market and low unemployment. But, like the UK, there has been a growth in insecure work. Housing costs are high around the world, but especially in English-speaking countries like Canada and Australia. Since the 1980s, there has been a global phenomenon of rising wealth and a disconnect between GDP and wages experienced by the average worker. This has been the most extreme in the US, where real GDP has increased 300%, but median wages have risen only 30% since 1980.

Weather

If there is one good reason to move from the UK, it is the weather, at this time of the year, it can be dull, grey, cold and miserable, A cold damp that some foreign visitors can scarcely believe. 1 in 20 British people suffer from seasonal affective disorder. There are many countries with more sunshine, but in an era of increasingly extreme weather events, could the UK be actually quite a good place to ride out the coming decades.? Southern America is increasingly battered by severe storms. Global warming

And extreme heat in southern Europe is becoming stultifying. Even Paris has been hit by severe heat waves in the middle of summer. Perhaps in a few decades, living in the highlands of Scotland will be increasingly attractive.

The UK has certainly many problems, but does the modern media and internet landscape tend to exagerrate the downsides and forget some of the benefits we take for granted? A recent study shows that Gen Z spend an average of 6 hours a day online. That includes over an hour on Tik Tok. But it’s unfair to pick on Gen Z, Boomers and Gen X may prefer Facebook, but there is a similar immersion in doom scrolling. Producing many video on youtube, I know how the algorithm very strongly rewards more negative content. You won’t go viral if a post on the UK economy is not doing too badly. If we tried to put a more positive spin on living in the UK what could we point to?

Global Comparison

real-gdp-capita-ppp-oecd-countries

Living standards are reasonable by global comparison. Using purchasing power parity, UK is fairly mid-rank in terms of the OECD. $44,000 a year. It’s true, that the growth in living standards have stalled in the past 15 years, but it is still lower in many other countries. The UK still ranks relatively well on issues like levels of corruption, rule of law and levels of political violence. Former PM Gordon Brown once observed, “In establishing the rule of law, the first 500 years are always the hardest.” You could argue the British media are pretty rubbish. Tabloids owned by millionaires are highly partisan, but freedom of speech, the rule of law are deeply embedded. Eastern European countries who experienced 50 years of Communism, will democracy and rule of law be as robust in the coming age of turbulence. On the index of perceived corruption, the UK did actually slip down rankings in the past 5 years from 8^th to 20^th, but it is still relatively low.

Good industries

The UK still has many industries where it excels. Education has a strong reputation and attracts many foreign students, although concerns over migration will see this fall in the coming years. Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Imperial College London are world leaders in research and innovation. The QS world university rankings give the UK 3 out of the top 5 global universities.. The UK has expertise in financial services, pharmaceuticals, biotech development. It is also a global player in creative industries like media and films. Life in Britain may be rubbish, but at least there are quite a few comedians who can make fun of your life in the office.

If you get your bike stolen, the police don’t have the resources to look for it, but although far from perfect, the UK is relatively safe. The UK has a homicide rate of 1.1 per 100,000 which is over fives times less than the United States at 6.3.

There is much concern about congestion and over-crowding, but 92% of the UK is still unbuilt with some beautiful countryside and relatively easy access. It still remains a green and pleasant land. There was a time when the French could rightly complain about British food, but at least that is one stereotype that can be dispelled. British food is really good. A country that develops marmite, brown sauce and Yorkshire puddings must be doing something right. We even have the best tea in the world, grown in the beautiful Yorkshire Dales apparently…

Could the UK do better yes. Would moving abroad giving better living standards, possibly? It really depends on what you make of it. But, one thing is certain the glory days of the UK is over, perhaps for the best in some respects, but the past 100 years have seen a long decline in the relative success of the UK economy, this post explains what has gone wrong. UK Economic Decline During Past 100 Years

There are many difficult aspects of life in the UK, especially

Management that binds employees in red tape rather than empowers them to feel they are making a meaningful impact are even more likely to exit.

Overall satisfaction with GP services has collapsed from a peak of 80% in 2009 to 35% last year.

For instance, emergency admissions for hypertension have increased 165% since 2019

https://www.newstatesman.com/business/2024/11/hr-britain-how-human-resources-captured-the-nation

The average number of sick days taken across the UK in each company: