Economic changes from railways

railways

I’m currently reading a book Blood, Iron and Gold by Christian Wolmar about how railways transformed the world.

belt--railways

This interesting extract from the political economist Friedrich List, explains some of the economic benefits of railways:

“Railways would carry wood, turf and coal at less than half the present costs. Bavaria, where flour, meat and other foodstuffs are 50 – 100 per cent cheaper than in Leipzig, could export its surplus to the Erzgebirge, the Elbe and the Hanseatic cities. Cheaper food and fuel would partly enhance the well-being of the working classes, and partly lower money wages, increase population and increase the extent of industry. Cheap building materials and low money wages would encourage building and lower the rents in the new and more distant parts of the city.” …. I do not doubt for one minute that this increase in value in Leipzig alone would in a few years exceed the total capital costs of the new railways.” Leipzig-Dresden railway” [1]

In one paragraph, quite a few interesting areas of economic theory.

  1. New technology leading to lower average cost for business. The introduction of the railways enabled a substantial reduction in costs of transport, leading to lower prices of goods in shops. The new stream railway technology quite possibly had a bigger impact on business than recent technological innovations, such as micro-computers and the internet.
  2. Theory of comparative advantage. This extract shows Bavaria has a comparative advantage in foodstuffs (50-100% cheaper) Exporting surplus foodstuffs led to increased economic welfare for both Bavaria (exporters) and the cities (cheaper imports). Presumably, exporting food, would give Bavaria more income to spend on goods and services produced in the cities. This theory of comparative advantage is no use, if there are prohibitive transport costs. The railways enable these potential gains to be materialised.

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How does inflation affect firms?

Firms generally prefer inflation to be low and stable. If inflation rises above 3 or 4%, firms may see a rise in costs and uncertainty. Inflation can also cause firms problems of rising costs, falling profitability, and a decline in international competitiveness. However, inflation is not necessarily damaging for a firm – especially, if they …

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Economic policies of Donald Trump

The first admission about writing on the economic policies of Donald Trump is that nobody can be entirely sure what it will be – perhaps even Donald Trump himself. Campaign promises are one thing, but the reality of a Republican controlled Congress, may be something else. I don’t think it unreasonable to think that the …

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Guidance for setting monetary policy

inflation-interest-rates-06-19

What factors should we consider when setting monetary policy? Basics of monetary policy If inflation is above the target and economic growth too fast, the Bank will likely increase interest rates. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing and reduce investment/consumer spending – leading to a lower rate of economic growth. See more at …

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Velocity of circulation and inflation

Readers Question: When does velocity of money pick up and why will it? Clearly, the reason US inflation worriers have been wrong so far (NB). Is it confidence or policy?

The velocity of circulation / velocity of money refers to how frequently the money stock in an economy is used in a given period.

In the basic money supply equation, we have MV=PY

  • M= Money supply
  • V = Velocity of circulation
  • P = Price Level
  • Y = Income (in other versions, T also used for transactions)

If there is £1,000bn of money in the economy, and the total value of transactions in a year is £1,000bn, then the velocity of circulation is just 1.

If the total value of transactions rises to £3,000bn, this means the £1,000bn of money stock is being used three times in an economy. This gives a velocity of circulation of 3.

Quantitative easing and a fall in the velocity of circulation

monetary-base-cpi

Blue line is the monetary base (one form of money supply). This surge in the monetary base has had no effect on inflation.

During the period of quantitative easing, we saw a big rise in the monetary base, but, inflation didn’t increase. The reason for this is that people didn’t want to spend this extra money. To be more precise, banks didn’t want to lend this extra increase in the money supply, they just kept bigger bank reserves. Therefore, the money supply didn’t filter through to the wider economy.

Velocity of circulation

m1-velocity

The Green line shows a fall in the M1 velocity of circulation at the start of 2009 (wiki)

This is to be expected in a recession. Banks reduce lending, consumers reduce spending, and there is a rise in saving. Therefore, the velocity of circulation falls. This explains why a rise in the money supply doesn’t cause inflation (which it might if the economy was at full capacity)

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Pros and Cons of a Congestion Charge

congestion
congestion on the streets

An examination of the advantages and disadvantages of congestion charges:

Some cities, such as London have introduced a congestion charge. The aim of a congestion charge is:

  • Reduce congestion. Therefore reduce time wasted and reduce costs for business
  • Reduce pollution. Fewer cars will lead to less pollution.
  • Make city centres more attractive for pedestrians and cyclists, which will help increase the quality of life.
  • Raise revenue. The money from congestion charge can be spent on other forms of public transport and increasing alternatives to driving.
  • Make drivers pay the full social cost of driving. Driving in city centres incurs significant external costs on the rest of society. The main external costs include congestion, pollution and accidents. Congestion is estimated to cost the UK economy over £20bn a year in terms of extra costs for business (time wasted) Driving already incurs taxes, most notably, petrol tax. However, petrol tax doesn’t discriminate for where congestion is worst. Therefore, councils could place a congestion charge on driving into a certain area at busy times
  • Reduce Journey Time. This is good for business, but also helpful for emergency services in getting to serious injuries quicker.

The natural rate of interest

natural interest rate

The natural rate of interest is the interest rate consistent with maintaining economic growth at its trend rate and stable inflation. Another definition of the natural rate of interest is: “the real interest rate consistent with real GDP equalling its potential level (potential GDP) in the absence of transitory shocks to demand. (FR) In other …

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Predicting inflation in the short term

Long-term economic forecasting can be very difficult. A well known joke by John Kenneth Galbraith is: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” However, although there is some truth in this wisecrack, in the short term, we can be reasonably confident about predictions for inflation. In particular, if we see …

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