UK Economy’s long-term decline

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Since the great financial crash of 2007, the UK economy has struggled. Although the past 15 years have been challenging from a global perspective, compared to many international competitors, the UK has slipped behind. Economic growth before global financial crisis of 2007-09 was 2.7%, the new normal is now closer to just 1.5% and with …

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Does the UK need to return to austerity?

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The recent surge in UK government gilts is a warning that unfunded tax cuts in a time of high inflation can cause markets to sell off UK bonds and make it harder to finance future government borrowing. After 15 years of ultra-low interest rates and little concern about rising debt, it is a reminder that …

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The Effect of fall in Pound Sterling

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In recent weeks, the Pound Sterling has fallen – losing value against the dollar and other currencies. This year, the Pound has fallen over 16% against the dollar and 7% on a trade-weighted index. In Summary A falling Pound makes: UK imports become more expensive and UK exports more competitive. A falling Pound tends to …

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Will a surge in borrowing cause a debt crisis in the UK?

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As the chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was announcing his radical budget of energy bailout, and tax cuts for corporations and high-income earners, the markets took a dim view. Sterling fell and bond yields on government debt rose as investors sold UK bonds in response to the deteriorating outlook.   Uniquely for such a large change of …

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Reasons for falling value of Pound Sterling

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Why has the Pound Sterling been falling? The Pound has been in long term decline since after the Second World War, when £1 = $4.05. In recent decades the pound has continued to decline. In particular since the great financial crash of 2007, which hit the UK hard. In recent years, the combination of Brexit, …

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What causes a government to default on its debt

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Earlier this year, the World Bank warned up to 40 nations are at risk of defaulting on their sovereign debt. Already Sri Lanka, once hailed as an economic jewel, has badly defaulted as the country slides into economic turmoil. But, the bank warns many others, such as El Salvador, Ghana, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya and Argentina …

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End of Russian Fossil Fuel industry

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The Russian fossil fuel industry is facing a real crisis. Western sanctions and Russia’s own embargo on exports to the West mean that the industry is facing long-term decline. Already there have been reports of ‘capping’ of natural gas facilities. This means that natural gas is burnt at its source because the industry cannot sell …

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