The Sahm rule is a way of predicting a recession from changes in the unemployment rate. “(The) Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.” (Sahm Rule) …
Summary – Periods of high inflation usually lead to lower returns on the stock market because higher inflation is likely to lead to higher interest rates, lower economic growth and lower dividends. Impact of high inflation on share prices If the inflation rate increases, this will make investors wary for a few reasons. Firstly, if …
The price of natural gas is determined by several supply and demand factors. Source: IMF Commodity prices (look for left column – excel database) The sharp increase in the price of natural gas in 2021/22 reflects concerns over the availability of supply from Russia and the economic recovery which has led to greater demand. Since …
Putting aside the very real human cost, war has also serious economic costs – damage to infrastructure, a decline in the working population, inflation, shortages, uncertainty, a rise in debt and disruption to normal economic activity. From some perspectives, war can appear to be beneficial in terms of creating demand, employment, innovation and profits for …
Inflation is a sustained rise in prices and increase in the cost of living. The general costs of higher inflation will be reduced purchasing power of money, fall in the value of savings, a depreciation in the exchange rate, less certainty for firms and the inconvenience of dealing with changing prices. In addition, developing economies …
Definition of stagflation Stagflation is a period of rising inflation but falling output and rising unemployment. Stagflaton is often a period of falling real incomes as wages struggle to keep up with rising prices. Stagflation is often caused by a rise in the price of commodities, such as oil. Stagflation occurred in the 1970s following …
The money supply measures the total amount of money in the economy at a particular time. It includes actual notes and coins and also any deposits which can be quickly converted into cash. There are different measures of the money supply depending on how you count it. Narrow definitions include all the money supply which …
One of the great events in European economic history was the great plague of the 14th Century. The Black Death, which swept across Europe (killing up to 30% of citizens), led to a profound change in economic circumstances. Due to the shortage of labour, peasants were freed from their serfdom. With great demand for labour, …