What causes a government to default on its debt

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Earlier this year, the World Bank warned up to 40 nations are at risk of defaulting on their sovereign debt. Already Sri Lanka, once hailed as an economic jewel, has badly defaulted as the country slides into economic turmoil. But, the bank warns many others, such as El Salvador, Ghana, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya and Argentina …

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Labour (wages and incomes) share of GDP

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The unadjusted labour share is usually calculated as the ratio of total compensation of employees – wages and salaries before taxes, plus employers’ social contributions – over GDP (national product/income) (Luebker, 2007). There are different methodologies for calculating labour share – e.g. should executive pay and share options be included? Greater insight would be gained …

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Definition of a Recession

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A recession is a period with a significant decline in economic activity characterised by falling GDP, rising unemployment and a decline in real incomes. A quick and simple definition of a recession (used in the UK and EU) is – negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. The US uses a more comprehensive definition of …

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Are we set for a housing market crash?

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When I started teaching economics in the early 2000s, I remember quite a few commentators predicting imminent house price falls because house prices were overvalued by historical trends, I used to occasional dip into house price crash forums to see a debate about when prices would fall. Yet, since 2000, even accounting for the financial …

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Effect of raising interest rates

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Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, reduce disposable income and therefore limit the growth in consumer spending. Higher interest rates tend to reduce inflationary pressures and cause an appreciation in the exchange rate. Higher interest rates have various economic effects: Effect of higher interest rates Increases the cost of borrowing. With higher interest …

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The link between Money Supply and Inflation

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In theory, there is a strong link between the money supply and inflation. If the money supply rises faster than real output, then prices will usually rise. This means if a Central Bank prints more money, we will often (though not always!) get higher inflation. Explanation of why increased money supply causes inflation The money …

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Cost-Push Inflation

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Definition: Cost-push inflation occurs when we experience rising prices due to higher costs of production and higher costs of raw materials. Cost-push inflation is determined by supply-side factors, such as higher wages and higher oil prices. Cost-push inflation is different to demand-pull inflation which occurs when aggregate demand grows faster than aggregate supply. Cost-push inflation …

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The problem with printing money

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Readers Comment. Why doesn’t the Bank of England just print the money instead of borrowing the money? Printing more money doesn’t increase economic output –  it only increases the amount of cash circulating in the economy. If more money is printed, consumers are able to demand more goods, but if firms have still the same …

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