Long-term economic forecasting can be very difficult. A well known joke by John Kenneth Galbraith is: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” However, although there is some truth in this wisecrack, in the short term, we can be reasonably confident about predictions for inflation. In particular, if we see …
Readers question: Will a sustained recovery in the UK lead to inflation? A sustained economic recovery could lead to inflation. If economic growth is above the long run trend rate for a prolonged period, if demand grows faster than productivity, then in that scenario we are likely to see rising inflation (rise in the cost …
Readers Question: How can a developing country grow without inflation? Economic growth can lead to inflation, for example, if demand rises faster than productive capacity, then we will see rising prices. However, economic growth is compatible with low inflation, and developing economies which can increase productive capacity and general efficiency can see rising living standards …
When food prices rise in the developed world, it is an inconvenience, something to grumble about. But, when food prices rise in the developing world, it can make a difference between going hungry and getting enough to eat. Food inflation is volatile. Agricultural prices tend to fluctuate because demand and supply are both inelastic and …
A chain-weighted inflation measure takes into account changes in both price and spending patterns. A chain-weighted inflation index measures both changes in the price of goods but also reflects changes in the number of goods bought. For example, suppose you buy two goods which are close substitutes – bananas (30p) and apples (30p) At this …
The ONS produce an RPI pensioner index which is the inflation rate calculated for the spending patterns of the average pensioner. The series is here: RPI Pensioner index CZIT – Percentage change over 12 months: One-person pensioner households index. CZJI – Percentage change over 12 months – Two-person pensioner households index Why do pensioners have …
Readers Question: I was really hoping you might be able to inform me of the effects that zero inflation (which the UK is currently experiencing) might have on aggregate demand in the economy? Firstly, this post will help consider the impact of zero inflation on AD and economic growth – Is zero inflation a good …
In the UK, there are quite a few different measures of inflation. All measures seek to show the annual change in living costs. However, different measures of inflation give different inflation figures. For example, RPI can often give a higher rate of inflation than CPI. CPI can also be misleading. For example, an increase in VAT …