Rational economic man – Homo Economicus

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rational-expectations

Homo Economicus is a hypothetical concept that humans are: Self-interested Know what they want Make rational choices to maximise their utility. These choices are based on the concept of marginal utility. This concept of a rational economic man is an important cornerstone of neo-classical economic theory. It creates a framework to model how consumers and …

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Productive vs allocative efficiency

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allocative-inefficiency-over

Summary: Productive efficiency is concerned with the optimal method of producing goods; producing goods at the lowest cost. Allocative efficiency is concerned with the optimal distribution of goods and services. Example: An economy could be productively efficient in producing large numbers of boots – but if they were all for the left foot, it would …

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Cost and benefits of EU in perspective

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I wrote a while back that I was a rather unenthusiastic supporter of remaining in Europe, and perhaps it wasn’t that important. In recent weeks, I have become more committed to staying in Europe, and feeling leaving the EU would be a regressive step. Bigger perspective The EU was formed out of the Second World …

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Who lends the government money?

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Readers Question: Who lends the government money? Government debt is primarily sold to banks, pension funds, private investors and overseas investors. These financial institutions and individuals effectively lend the government money in return for gaining a safe investment (bond) with a guaranteed interest payment. Approx 27% is ‘lent’ by overseas investors. Investors do not see …

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Optimal name of companies and search engine positions

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aasvogel-skip-hire

I saw this skip for hire and it made me nostalgic for a pre-internet era? Why. Before the internet, most people would order a skip by looking through the Yellow Pages (a telephone directory for companies) – ordered by type of business. For something like ‘skip hire’ – It’s the kind of business where you …

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Declining Terms of Trade

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decline-in-terms-of-trade

The Terms of trade refer to the relative price of exports/imports. A decline in the terms of trade means the price of exports falls relative to imports. Imports become more expensive. Typically a country will have lower living standards and less ability to import. Impact of decline in terms of trade on a developing economy …

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Effects of a budget surplus

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A budget surplus occurs when government tax receipts are greater than government spending. It means the government can either save money or pay off existing national debt. It is worth noting, that budget surpluses are quite rare in the past 120 years. Politicians have sometimes attempted to enshrine budget surplus into law but what are …

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Credit Default Swaps Explained

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Definition of Credit Default Swap – CDS are a financial instrument for swapping the risk of debt default. Credit default swaps may be used for emerging market bonds, mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds and local government bond

  • The buyer of a credit default swap pays a premium for effectively insuring against a debt default. He receives a lump sum payment if the debt instrument defaults.
  • The seller of a credit default swap receives monthly payments from the buyer. If the debt instrument defaults they have to pay the agreed amount to the buyer of the credit default swap.

Example of Credit Default Swap

  • An investment trust owns £1 million corporate bond issued by a private housing firm.
  • If there is a risk the private housing firm may default on repayments, the investment trust may buy a CDS from a hedge fund. The CDS is worth £1 million.
  • The investment trust will pay interest on this credit default swap of say 3%. This could involve payments of £30,000 a year for the duration of the contract.
  • If the private housing firm doesn’t default. The hedge fund gains the interest from the investment bank and pays nothing out. It is simple profit.
  • If the private housing firm does default, then the hedge fund has to pay compensation to the investment bank of £1 million – the value of the credit default swap.
  • Therefore the hedge fund takes on a larger risk and could end up paying £1million

The higher the perceived risk of the bond, the higher the interest rate the hedge fund will require.

Example of Credit Default Swap

  • Example, suppose that Lloyds TSB has lent money to riskymortgage.co.uk in the form of a £1,000 bond.
  • Lloyds TSB may then purchase a credit default swap from another company e.g. a Hedge Fund.
  • If the firm (Riskymortgage.co.uk) default on the loan, then the hedge fund will pay Lloyds TSB the value of the loan.
  • Thus Lloyds TSB has insurance against loan default. The hedge fund has the opportunity to make a profit, so long as the firm does not default on the loan.
  • The riskier the loan, the higher will be the premium required on buying a credit default swap.

Why Would People Buy Credit Default Swaps?

1. Hedge against risk. Suppose an investment fund owned mortgage bonds from riskymortgage.co.uk. It might be worried about losing all its investment. Therefore, to hedge against the risk of default, they could purchase a credit default swap from Lloyds TSB. If riskymortgage.co.uk defaulted, they will lose their investment, but receive a pay-off from Lloyds to compensate. If they don’t default, they have paid a premium to Lloyds but have had security.

2. Speculation e.g. risk is underpriced.

Suppose a hedge fund felt risky mortgage was very likely to default because of a rise in home repossessions. They would buy a credit default swap. If the debt defaulted, then they would make a profit from Lloyds TSB. Note you don’t have to actually own debt to take a credit default swap.

The riskier a bond is the higher premium will be required from a buyer of a credit default swap. It is argued that credit default swaps provide an important role in indicating the riskiness/creditworthiness of a firm.

3. Arbitrage

If a company’s financial position improves, the credit rating should also improve and therefore, the CDS spread should fall to reflect improved rating. This makes CDS more attractive to sell CDS protection. If the company position deteriorated, CDS protection would be more attractive to buy. Arbitrage could occur when dealers exploit any slowness of the market to respond to signals.

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