Forecasts for UK economy in 2026

For those hoping for more optimistic 2026, the latest growth figures offer few crumbs of comfort. The latest data show another contraction in UK GDP, indicating an economy stuck in decline. Monthly data can be noisy, but almost certainly November stats will be just bad as early indicators suggest consumers stayed away from shops because …

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The relationship between economics and politics

Readers question: Why cannot politics and economics be seen in isolation?

Economics is concerned with studying and influencing the economy. Politics is the theory and practice of influencing people through the exercise of power, e.g. governments, elections and political parties.

In theory, economics could be non-political. An ideal economist should ignore any political bias or prejudice to give neutral, unbiased information and recommendations on how to improve the economic performance of a country. Elected politicians could then weigh up this economic information and decide.

Houses of Parliament london

In practice there is a strong relationship between economics and politics because the performance of the economy is one of the key political battlegrounds. Many economic issues are inherently political because they lend themselves to different opinions.

Political ideology influencing economic thought

Many economic issues are seen through the eyes of political beliefs. For example, some people are instinctively more suspicious of government intervention. Therefore, they prefer economic policies which seek to reduce government interference in the economy. For example,  supply side economics concentrates on deregulation, privatisation and tax cuts.

On the other hand, economists may have a preference for promoting greater equality in society and be more willing to encourage government intervention to pursue that end.

If you set different economists to report on the desirability of income tax cuts for the rich, their policy proposals are likely to reflect their political preferences. You can always find some evidence to support the benefits of tax cuts, you can always find some evidence to support the benefits of higher tax.

Some economists may be scrupulously neutral and not have any political leanings (though I haven’t met too many). They may produce a paper that perhaps challenges their previous views. Despite their preferences, they may find there is no case for rail privatisation, or perhaps they find tax cuts do actually increase economic welfare.

However, for a politician, they can use those economists and economic research which backs their political view. Mrs Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were great champions of supply-side economists like Milton Friedman, Keith Joseph, and  Friedrich Hayek. When Reagan was attempting to ‘roll back the frontiers of the state,’ – there was no shortage of economists who were able to provide a theoretical justification for the political experiment. There were just as many economists suggesting this was not a good idea, but economists can be promoted by their political sponsors. In the US, the Paul Ryan budget proposals were welcomed by many Republicans because they promised tax cuts for better off, cutting welfare benefits and balancing the budget. (1) A popular selection of policies for Republicans.

Economic thought independent of politics

On the other hand, economists who stick to data and avoid cherry picking favourable statistics may well come up with conclusions and recommendations that don’t necessarily fit it with pre-conceived political issues.

Many economists may be generally supportive of the EU and European co-operation, but the evidence from the Euro single currency is that it caused many economic problems of low growth, deflation and trade imbalances.

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What is the Function of a Central Bank?

The main function of a central bank is to promote price stability (low inflation), financial stability, and help the economy grow in a sustainable way. A Central Bank is an integral part of the financial and economic system. They are usually owned by the government and given certain functions to fulfil. These include inflation target, …

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Pros and Cons of Rent Controls

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In many cities, rents have risen faster than inflation creating a cost of living headache for those who cannot buy but need to rent. In London, average rents have risen above £2,000 a month, which means tenants spend a high percentage of their income on rents. But, it is not just London, many major cities …

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House Price Forecasts 2026

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2025 has been a tough year for the housing market. A weak economy, higher taxes and budget uncertainty have all led to stagnation. Transactions have been low, and house prices barely increasing. In fact, with inflation over 3%, real house prices have continued to fall. And This is actually a big underlying story of the …

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Which Crime Statistics Should We Trust?

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In the past four years, the number of recorded shoplifting incidents have more than doubled. But, the problem is worse as many go unrecorded, in 2024, there were an estimated 20 million incidents of shoplifting in England and Wales, resulting in only 31,000 prosecutions. This is a fivefold increase since 2014 with the police seemingly …

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Deindustrialisation in the UK – Causes, Costs and Stats

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The UK was the first country to industrialise, leading the way with the industrial revolution. However, since the Second World War, the UK has experienced a process of deindustrialisation – a shrinking size, importance and share of the manufacturing industrial sector. Deindustrialisation refers to the long-term decline in the relative importance of manufacturing and heavy …

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Costs and Benefits of a Weak Pound

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Readers Question: What are the costs and benefits of a low pound? A low pound means the value has fallen against others. It implies the Pound has depreciated/devalued in value. The decline of the Pound could be due to Cuts in interest rates Declining economy – causing expectation of lower interest rates ‘Technical positions’ dealers …

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