The UK construction sector remains largely depressed with construction volumes still below pre-recession levels. In headline figures produced by the ONS, the estimated level of the total volume of construction output in the third quarter of 2012 was the lowest since the second quarter of 1999. The construction sector is one of the most volatile …
There is hope that the UK may officially be leaving the current recession (for the second time). However, this recovery needs to be put into perspective in to what kind of recovery should we have been expecting? Interesting research by Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, 24 October 2012 on this post- “What should we have expected …
The amount of UK retail sales increased by 2.5% in the 12 months from September 2011 to September 2012. This measure includes the amount (quantity) of goods in all retailing, seasonally adjusted. The amount spent (value of goods) increased by 3.2% Annual store price inflation was estimated to be 0.7 %. This suggests that the …
Recent unemployment data from the US shows a sharp fall in the unemployment rate. EU unemployment remains stuck at 11.4% – the highest since the introduction of the Euro in 1999. The diverging unemployment rates highlight the different stages of economic recovery between the two economic zones. However, sluggish EU recovery and a continued EU …
M4 Definition M4 is a broad money supply measure. Briefly, M4 includes all notes and coins in circulation, deposits at banks and building societies, plus assets which are considered relatively liquid (short-term bonds, commercial paper) M4 growth is currently negative. M4 lending to private sector is currently 6.0% lower compared to past 12 month (July …
What are the key issues affecting the UK economy over the next few years? Recession and Recovery The biggest problem facing the UK economy is the lack of economic recovery. After a fall in GDP of 6% in 2008/09, the economy briefly recovered, but the recent double dip recession of 2012 has left the UK …
What explains the difference between UK and US economic growth rates since the start of the crisis in late 2007? Firstly, the recession was slightly deeper in the UK with a 6% fall in real GDP during 2008. Possibly, the recession was deeper in the UK because of our greater reliance on the financial sector. Since …
UK borrowing was higher in July than expected. Overall public sector net borrowing came in at £600 million in July, compared with a surplus of £2.8 billion in the same month last year. City’s expectations had been for a surplus of £2.5 billion. Overall borrowing for 2012/13 is likely to overshoot the OBR’s forecast of …