Fall in Euro

Recently, the Euro has fallen from 1.5 Dollars to 1 Euro in 2011 to near parity in March 2015. The fall in the value of the Euro has been very steep in the last six months. This is a very significant depreciation in the Euro, and primarily reflects the greater economic weakness in the Eurozone. …

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Deflationary Bias in the Eurozone

Readers Question: Is there an inbuilt deflationary bias in the Eurozone? Note: I originally wrote this post in 2010. Unfortunately, every year there is a reason to update the post and suggest the deflationary bias in the Eurozone keeps getting stronger. Deflationary bias means that there is a tendency for economic policy to promote lower …

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Russian economic crisis

With economic sanctions and a plummeting price of oil, the Russian economy is seeing a real economic crisis. The value of the rouble is falling – causing inflation and a decline in living standards. Government tax revenues are falling as oil tax revenues decline. On top of a falling Rouble, the economy faces recession due …

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Mansion tax – pros and cons

Wealth inequality UK

A mansion tax (or property tax) would be an annual progressive charged that would be paid by homeowners. It is effectively a tax on housing wealth. The Labour party has suggested implementing a property tax on homes worth over £2 million. Exact details have not been confirmed, but the suggestion is that it will be …

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Are UK house price rises sustainable or are we heading for a crash?

Readers comment on – House prices stats Excuse me for pointing out the obvious, but why are those ratios (House price to incomes) unsustainable if interest rates stay low? It’s the ratio of house-price-multiplied-by-interest-rate to earnings that determines affordability, not ratio of house price to earnings. If rates fall as prices rise, then the first …

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The Euro and deflation

A look at the effects of how an over-valuation of the exchange rate can cause deflation. Readers Question: does an appreciation in the exchange rate cause deflation? An appreciation does tend to reduce inflationary pressures. This is because after after an appreciation in the exchange rate: Price of imports will fall, causing a fall in …

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UK unemployment threshold of 7%

Readers Question Why is the forward guidance threshold set at 7% unemployment and how does this affect the threshold for inflation? The MPC have a remit to target inflation of CPI = 2% +/-1. But, the MPC also consider wider issues of economic growth and unemployment. UK Real GDP is still lower than the level …

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