Readers question: How much will the Pound devalue? Since the start of 2016, the Pound has been depreciating against other currencies – especially the US dollar. Since Brexit end of June, the Pound has fallen another 10% heading to a 30 year low against the US dollar. Pound Sterling against the Dollar This is daily …
There have been a couple of thoughtful pieces from Paul Krugman challenging the consensus that Brexit will have very high short-term economic cost. Krugman’s argument is: There is uncertainty, but uncertainty on itself is not enough to create a significant demand side shock. In fact, when the uncertainty is resolved, we could have a mini-boom …
Some thing that weren’t always made clear during EU referendum. Economic experts are worth listening to. A string of senior ‘leave’ politicians lined up to say you shouldn’t listen to economists making warnings about short term and long-term damage to economy. But, just because economic analysis is inconvenient to your point of view, doesn’t alter …
Will the UK’s decision to leave the EU cause recession? Factors which could cause Brexit recession Loss of confidence. Many foreign investors may be deterred from investing in the UK because of uncertainties that they may have higher costs for accessing the Single Market. This decline in investment could lead to fall in aggregate demand. …
George Osborne has recently stated that leaving the EU could leave a black hole in public finances of £30bn and this would lead to sharp budget cuts – tax rises and spending cuts. This raises the interesting question of whether you can talk yourself into a recession. Do predictions of recession become self-fulfilling? How can …
A devaluation (depreciation) occurs when the exchange rate falls in value. This causes exports to be cheaper and imports to be more expensive. In theory, it can help increase economic growth, though it may cause inflation. In theory, a devaluation will cause the following to happen: The price of UK exports will be lower in …
Readers question: Will a sustained recovery in the UK lead to inflation? A sustained economic recovery could lead to inflation. If economic growth is above the long run trend rate for a prolonged period, if demand grows faster than productivity, then in that scenario we are likely to see rising inflation (rise in the cost …
In the 1960s, a big political issue was the size of the deficit. Not the budget deficit, but the current account deficit on the balance of payments. In recent years, worries about the balance of payments (current account deficit) have slipped from the political and media agenda. However, we have a very strong importance attached …