In recent years, the level of pension spending in the UK has increased significantly in both real terms and as a share of GDP. Demographic trends suggest there will be a continued increase in the old age dependency ratio, and further rises in pension spending, at a time, when budget constraints limit spending in other …
People often refer to the idea of a Twin Deficit, especially in the US. The twin deficit refers to Government borrowing – government spending greater than tax revenues. Government borrowing creates an annual budget deficit and increases national debt. Current account deficit (imports greater than exports) on Balance of Payments US current account deficit 5% …
Readers Question: Does Government debt matter? Do high fiscal deficits threaten economic stability? Summary Many worry that high levels of government debt could cause economic instability. In certain occasions, countries with high debt have seen investors lose confidence, leading to higher bond yields and putting pressure on the government to slash spending, for example, several …
One of the most popular topics on this blog is government debt. UK National debt and list of countries sovereign debt. To many people the sums involved are so large, there seems something instinctively wrong, even dangerous, about allowing the government to borrow so much. As Mrs Thatcher said, she was brought up a grocer’s …
Should the government leave house prices to market forces, or actively intervene to prevent a house price crash? Arguments for intervention Falling House Prices Could cause a recession If house prices fall, it will cause significant problems for the UK economy. There will be a fall in consumer wealth, and declining house prices can lead …
The economic cycle plays an important role in determining the level of government borrowing, especially in the short run. Essentially, higher economic growth leads to lower government borrowing, but a recession will increase government borrowing. Over the past few years (2008-12) – the idea that an economic downturn increases government borrowing is probably one of …
Readers Question: After the insightful post on ‘Italian Economic Decline’, I was particularly captured by the % debt to GDP line graph of the different developed countries. The one thing that really caught my eye was Japan’s huge % debt to GDP and yet their government bond yields are consistently declining. Aren’t the markets worried …
Readers Question. I greatly appreciate the time that you took to try to explain our debt situation. (History of National Debt / GDP) One thing that still confuses me is why our debt actually rose during a sustained time period where debt/GDP charts showed that it shrank. This is very important. (and I wish those …