The fiscal multiplier looks at how much an initial change in injections affects real GDP. For example, if increased government spending of £1bn causes overall GDP to rise by £1.5bn, the multiplier effect is 1.5 If £1bn worth of tax rises causes real GDP to fall by £0.5bn, the multiplier effect is (0.5) Since 2009, …
Recently, there has been much debate about the direction of monetary policy. Should we make monetary policy ‘looser’ – expansionary monetary policy through quantitative easing / lower interest rates in order to boost growth and reduce unemployment. Or should we consider ‘tightening’ monetary policy – higher interest rates, no quantitative easing in order to reduce …
The UK economy contracted by a provisional -0.7% in Q2 2012. This is a much bigger decline than most analysts expected. It means more bad news for the UK economy, struggling to regain positive economic growth. The biggest falls in economic output occurred in sectors such as: Agriculture – 2% Mining -5.9% Manufacturing – 1.4% …
Readers Question: Can there be economic growth without an increase in the money supply? Can there be growth with zero inflation? There can be economic growth with zero inflation. This could occur if there was improvements in productivity, which caused lower costs and higher output at the same time. If you take a particular sector …
Readers Question: What policies could Germany / the EU use to help save the Euro? The Euro has many problems. The most obvious outer problem is rising bond yields and the threat of sovereign debt default. Related to sovereign debt default is a banking default, e.g. from Spanish banks which would cause knock-on effects. But, …
Typically, a recession will lead to a negative output gap and lower inflation. However, after the recession is over, the economy can usually bounce back and recover this temporary loss of output. However, this ‘great recession’ is different in that there has been no bounce – only a prolonged recession – suggesting the usual expectations …
Readers Question: 1. I read somewhere that accommodative monetary policy (in other words, quantitative easing) does not automatically result in higher inflation. For higher inflation to occur, the output gap must be crossed. i.e. idle factories back in business, unemployment rates down, etc. However, I don’t think the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was preceded by increasing …
Inflation in the UK remains relatively high given the state of the economy. It continues to be above the Bank of England’s target of 1-3%. However, the MPC will not be overly concerned about inflation. They are more worried about the weak prospects for economic growth and will be ‘hoping’ / predicting inflation will continue …