A fundamental problem in the UK housing market is a persistent shortage of housing. The number of households is forecast to grow by 232,000 a year until 2033, and yet the current rate of home construction is struggling to increase above 150,000-200,000 a year.
According to Crisis, there is a backlog of nearly 5 million households with unsuitable accommodation.
There is currently a backlog of housing need of 4.75 million households across Great Britain (4 million in England). Around 3.66 million households are in housing need and are currently concealed and overcrowded household, those with serious affordability or physical health problems and people living in unsuitable accommodation.
The number of households is predicted to rise by 4.3 million over the next two decades.
In 2007 the Government set a target of increasing the supply of housing to 240,000 additional homes per year by 2016. (link) Within this overall target was a commitment to deliver at least 70,000 affordable homes per year by 2010-11, of which 45,000 were to be new social rented homes. However, since the credit crunch of 2008, this target has severely fallen behind as housing construction has slumped.
Policies to deal with expensive house prices in the UK have sometimes focused on demand-side approaches, such as “Help to Buy” which offers credit to groups of young home buyers. But increasing the availability of credit doesn’t directly address this problem.
Housing completions have fallen close to 100,000 a year – well below the level needed to meet the growth in the number of households.
Source: GOV.uk – Live tables on new housing
There is hope improved mortgage availability will increase private sector construction. But, it doesn’t resolve other issues, such as planning regulations and local opposition to building homes on a large scale.
Demand growing faster than supply
Graph showing that demand for housing stock has been growing faster than net additions to the housing stock, pushing up house prices.
source: Understanding supply constraints in UK housing market, Shelter
Forecasts for future number of households
Implications of Housing Shortages
1. House prices will continue to rise in long-term
Despite two housing crashes, real house prices show a remorseless upward trend. The limited supply also tends to make house prices more volatile. Because supply is relatively inelastic a small change in demand can cause a significant change in price. This is a major factor behind the UK housing market’s tendency to boom and bust.
2. Housing will become more expensive as the percentage of income
Source: ONS Housing summary
The ratio of house prices to earnings for first-time buyers is already higher than the mid-1980s – despite the housing correction of 2008/09.
If the long-term trend of rising population combined with limited supply, this is likely to squeeze prices higher. See more at UK housing affordability.
2. Switch to the private rented sector will continue. If house prices continue to rise, more people will be looking for private rented accommodation.
Type of Property
3. Growth in wealth inequality. Rising house prices benefit homeowners (typically older people). However, it reduces living standards of those without a home. The UK will increasingly become divided between those who own a home and those who don’t.
4. Upward pressure on rental prices. The shortage of housing will put upward pressure on the price of rented accommodation. Housing costs will take a bigger share of people’s incomes affecting their discretionary income.
Housing Stock in England
Source: ONS Housing summary
Housing supply in UK
The ONS now publish stats by nation within UK – England, Scotland, Wales.
Local authority housing
Local authority housing stock has plummeted due to the popular right to buy scheme and transfer of housing stock to housing associations.
source: JRF Housing & Neighbourhood studies
- UK construction stats and data