Argentina crisis and recovery

Readers Question: With talk of a Greek exit from the Euro, the situation is almost always compared to Argentina in the 1980s and 90s. Can you explain what happened there and how it was resolved.

In the 1980s, Argentina built up substantial debt and also suffered from periods of very high inflation. To stabilise inflation, Argentina set a peg of the Argentina Peso against the dollar – the peg was one Peso to one dollar (this was enshrined in law).

The aim of this fixed exchange rate was to give people greater confidence in the Argentinian currency after periods of inflation.

  • The fixed exchange rate meant that inflation was stabilised and encouraged capital flows into Argentina. These capital flows led to a rise in wages and living standards
  • It also made imports cheaper, so the value of imports increased,
  • Exports became less competitive, leading to lower demand for exports.
  • This fall in exports and rise in imports lead to a current account deficit which was initially financed by these international capital flows.
  • However, the over-valuation of the currency contributed to a fall in domestic demand, and from 1998, Argentina experienced fall in GDP.
  • Also from 2001, international capital flows to Argentina dried up as investors were worried about the state of the global economy and the state of Argentina finances.

In particular, Argentina was adversely affected when the dollar rose against the Brazilian Real in 1999. This meant that the Argentina currency experienced a strong appreciation against its main trading partner – Brazil. This appreciation led to rapid fall in exports.

This appreciation in the Argentina currency was a key factor in pushing Argentina economy into a deep recession. Domestic demand fell. Unemployment rose to a socially crippling level of over 15%.

Government Debt

During 1999-2002, the Argentina government debt became unmanageable. This was because:

  • Legacy of debt from 1980s
  • Poor tax collection and corruption
  • Rise in government spending
  • Fall in tax revenues from recession.

International investors lost confidence in Argentinian bonds and interest rates rose to over 30%. Argentina relied on loans from the IMF to meet its shortfall.

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Spanish National Debt

Spain national debt was € 734,961 at the end of 2011 or 68% of GDP. This is a graph showing Spanish national debt in past 15 years. source: ECB stats   By European and international standards, this is actually quite low. National debt in Italy is 120% of GDP. In France government debt is higher at 80% …

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What next for the Pound to Euro?

In 2012, the Pound has strengthened against the Euro – reaching a level not seen since 2008. However, the value of the Euro to Pound is still  less than the peak of late 2007, when £1 reached €1.4.

In June 14th, 2012 £1 = €1.24 Euros. An increase since the start of the year when £1 = 1.18 Euros.

This appreciation in the Pound makes it cheaper to buy goods from Europe, but makes UK exporters less competitive.

Why Has the Pound Appreciated against the Euro?

Pound Euro
Effective Exchange rate of Euro at ECB

The Pound’s appreciation against the Euro reflects the growing concern over the future of the Euro.

    • Rising Euro bond yields. Bond yields on major economies, Spain and Italy have continued to rise. There is fear over prospect of possible default in not just Greece, but also bigger economies like Spain and Italy.
    • Lack of Effective Political Will to Deal with Eurozone’s problems. There appears to be a reluctance to embrace a form of fiscal union. The main approach is to rely on fiscal austerity to deal with budget deficits in the peripheral countries. But, these austerity measures have failed to stop bond yields rising.

bondyields

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Why Do Countries Want to Join the Euro?

One thing I really struggle to understand at the moment is why any country would want to join the Euro. The experience of the past few years is that membership of the Euro can devastate your economy. Given a chance, half of the members of the Euro would wish they had never joined. Greece, Spain, …

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Question: What % of UK Debt is held by the Bank of England?

Readers Question: Can someone please tell me what percent of the UK debt is held by the Bank of England? The Bank of England have purchased £325 bn of asset purchases, which are financed by issuing created reserves. Of these £325bn of assets, the vast majority are government gilts (bonds). The government’s net public sector …

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Cutting Pension Age to 60 in France

The new French President Francois Holland has cut the country’s retirement age. For workers who begin work at 18, they will now be able to retire at 60 (cut from 62) The move is controversial given the state of the French and European economy. He cites social justice as the reason for cutting the retirement …

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Does Quantitative Easing automatically cause higher inflation?

Readers Question: 1. I read somewhere that accommodative monetary policy (in other words, quantitative easing) does not automatically result in higher inflation. For higher inflation to occur, the output gap must be crossed. i.e. idle factories back in business, unemployment rates down, etc. However, I don’t think the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was preceded by increasing …

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Why Austerity is Politicaly Popular?

Austerity measures have pushed the UK and European economies back into recession with rising unemployment. But, I often feel that austerity measures are actually quite popular with the electorate. It is true that in Europe recently there has been something of a backlash. The recession has been so severe, voters have started to vote against …

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