Despite weak economic growth of the past decade, UK unemployment has fallen quicker than we might expect. It appears the natural rate of unemployment has fallen and despite record employment levels, wage pressures remain muted. Different reasons for this fall in unemployment include – low productivity, more flexible labour markets, disguised unemployment (underemployment) and growth …
Since the credit crisis of 2008, the UK economy has experienced structural weakness of Low economic growth Very poor productivity growth Weak demand Unbalanced economy geared towards consumption and low levels of investment. In addition to these structural weaknesses, the UK economy in 2020 now faces real threats from A hard Brexit Risk of slowdown …
Originally published in March 2015. Current inflation rate (Feb 2020) is 1.3%. I was 0.7% out. But there was no skill in predicting inflation of 2%. If Ii had to predict inflation for 2025, I would predict the same = 2%. Reader’s Question: What will be the inflation rate in 2020? Firstly, I can’t resist …
Questions on budget deficits and bond yields. 1. What is the Link between the size of a countries budget deficit, and bond yields? Highest budget deficits – Ireland, Japan, UK and US 10 Year Bond Yields Greece and Ireland seem to have the relationship you might expect – deficit close to 10% of GDP …
The balance of payments is the record of a country’s transactions / trade with the rest of the world. The balance of payments consists of: Current Account (trade in goods, services + investment incomes + transfers) Capital Account / Financial Account (capital and financial flows, net investment, portfolio investment) Errors and omissions. It is hard …
Definition of a liquidity trap: When monetary policy becomes ineffective because, despite zero/very low-interest rates, people want to hold cash rather than spend or buy illiquid assets. A liquidity trap is characterised by Very low-interest rates Low inflation Slow/negative economic growth Preference for saving rather than spending and investment Monetary policy becomes ineffective in boosting …
The optimal inflation rate is often considered to be around 2%. For example: The UK target inflation of 2% +/-1 The ECB target inflation of less than 2% US Federal Reserve target inflation of less than 2% (But from 2020 are likely to make inflation target symmetrical like the UK) Why Central Banks wish to …
Countries with the highest government spending as a share of GDP. The countries with the highest levels of government spending as % of GDP are predominantly Western Europe and Scandinavia in particular. The countries with the lowest government spending as a % of GDP tend to be poor developing economies. The one notable exception is …