Things can appear pretty bleak. We have warnings of a collapsing economy, record waiting lists, crumbling infrastructure and rising homelessness. The government might have changed, but the problems seem the same. Wages have stagnated and young people have low expectations of their future. It wasn’t always like this. In the post-war period, real wages were …
How Ireland Overtook the UK economyWatch this video on YouTube In the post-war period the newly independent Republic of Ireland still lagged the richer UK economy across the sea. It was a largely agragrian economy, with wages 40% the level of the UK and widespread poverty. But, over the next few decades, the Irish …
There’s been no honeymoon for the new Labour government. Since the election in July, UK growth has continued its long-term trend of barely existing. Recent data disappointed analysts with output falling in the last two months. Monthly data is noisy, but it comes amidst business warning of a weaker labour market, with higher national insurance, …
Over the past 35 years, rents have risen faster than inflation. But, even as rents reach record levels, they are forecast to keep growing. The latest surveys show a continued mismatch between rental demand and rental supply meaning another year of inflation-busting rent rises. The problem is we have such a mismatch of supply and …
After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, western countries imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. Some claimed this would cripple Russian economy and led to a deep recession. But, the Russian economy seemed to shrug this off growing at 3.6% in 2023 making it own of the fastest growing economies in the G20. And …
Recently the ONS produced a long-term forecast for spending and taxation. It makes for grim reading. Assuming policy doesn’t change, they forecast UK debt will rise to levels last seen in the Napoleonic Wars. This forecast also assumes there are no external shocks like Covid or the Ukraine war. At the same time, bond investors …
A record number of young people are giving up on work. Nearly a third of young people are either studying or dropping out of the labour market completely. In 2012 youth inactivity due to poor health was just 8%, now it is 23%, with poor mental health being the largest cause. Amongst all age groups, …
We Can’t Afford a Trump Trade WarWatch this video on YouTube In 1930, the US economy entered a deep recession and President Hoover responded by passing the Smoot Hawley tariff bill which saw average US tariffs almost double. The aim was to help US manufacturers from foreign competition. But, the bill was a disaster, …