The best guide to US elections is the state of the economy. If the economy is doing badly with high unemployment and/or higher inflation. The party of the sitting US president tends to get punished by the voters. But, how much influence does the President have on the economy and the rate of inflation? In …
Readers Question: Why was inflation higher in the 1970s? In 2022, inflation has increased in western Europe to the highest levels for many years. With inflation in UK and US approaching 10%. Yet, despite rising oil prices and other inflationary pressures, inflation is still considerably lower than in the 1970s. A big question is whether …
Oil prices have a significant effect on the consumer price index, though the correlation between oil prices and inflation is less direct than it used to be in the 1970s. St Louis Fed estimates a correlation of 0.27 between changes in the oil price and inflation. In other words, a sustained 10% rise in oil …
Secular stagnation is a term coined to describe a prolonged period of lower economic growth. Economists, such as Larry Summers have written on secular stagnation arguing the world has entered a period of substantially lower economic growth. He points to factors, such as ineffective monetary policy and weak demand for explaining the lower rates of …
Inflation is a continuous rise in the price level. Inflation means the value of money will fall and purchase relatively fewer goods than previously. In summary: Inflation will hurt those who keep cash savings and workers with fixed wages. Inflation will benefit those with large debts who, with rising prices, find it easier to pay …
Reader’s Question: Why does printing money cause inflation? Does this always occur? Summary If the money supply increases faster than output then, ceteris paribus, inflation will occur. If a government prints extra money, households will have more cash and more money to spend on goods. But, if the amount of goods stays the same, the …
Exchange rates are determined by factors, such as interest rates, confidence, the current account on balance of payments, economic growth and relative inflation rates. For example: If US business became relatively more competitive, there would be greater demand for American goods; this increase in demand for US goods would cause an appreciation (increase in value) …
Despite unprecedented economic sanctions imposed on Russia, the Russian Rouble has become the best performing currency in the world. Rising 30% in the year 2022 to 26 May 22 (source: Reuters) After the initial sanctions and freezing of Russian foreign currency reserves, the Russian rouble fell 25%. But, since then the Rouble has performed a …