How To Improve the American Standard of Living?

Readers Question: What should the government do to improve the American standard of living?

How could the President + Congress, make the biggest difference to improving American standards of living in the long run?

These are a few policies which I feel would improve US living standards.

1. Reduce Unemployment. The rise in US unemployment is one of biggest social and economic problems the US faces. A key factor is the sharp rise in unemployment since the start of the recession in 2008.

unemployment

This graph shows unemployment, plus ‘partial’ unemployment – workers facing part time work rather than full time job.

The US unemployment rate would have been worse without some federal fiscal expansion and the partial monetary expansion we have seen. In this regards, the US are doing better than say the Eurozone. However, there is still a need for stronger US economic growth to enable a more sustained reduction in unemployment. This requires a combination of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy to maintain the weak economic recovery. If the US recovery is sustained, that will leave them in a much better position to deal with their long term debt.

2. Tax on investment income.

Currently tax on investment income is taxed at a lower rate than income. It means that millionaires who receive their income through dividends and capital gains, pay a lower average tax rate than people on much lower incomes. Increasing tax on wealthy would help improve tax revenues and also create greater equality in society. (See also: why is US investment income taxed less than income? – business insider). Recently, President Obama  developed the “Buffet Rule,” (named after billionaire investor Warren Buffet), which says rich people shouldn’t pay taxes at a lower rate than ordinary workers. Obama has stated that people making more than $1 million should pay at least 30 percent of their income in taxes. I would go further and increase the marginal tax to 40% for incomes over $1 million.

3. Tax on Gasoline

tax petrol

source: tax

US tax on gasoline is substantially less than in Europe. In the US, the average tax on gasoline is 48.9 cents per gallon for gas. By contrast in the UK, tax is over 70p.

Higher petrol tax help US living standards through various means:

  • Raise revenue to help deal with budget deficit
  • Raise revenue which can be spent on improving America’s infrastructure (roads/railroads). These are ‘public goods’ which are underprovided in a free market and need to be paid for out of general taxation. Better infrastructure would help improve the supply side of the economy.
  • Reduce foreign dependency on oil. In 2008, the US spent $430 billion on importing oil from other countries. Higher gasoline tax would encourage people to use oil more conservatively. It would also encourage the purchase of more fuel efficient cars (e.g. fewer SUVs – more hybrid cars). Higher oil prices would also encourage firms to develop alternative energy sources.
  • By reducing the consumption of oil, it would make a contribution to decreasing America’s CO2 emissions.
  • Higher petrol tax may encourage Americans to cycle and walk rather than drive anywhere – this would help improve health standards.

4. Universal Health Care – Free at the point of use

The US spends 15% of its GDP on health care and this is rising because of an ageing population and improvement in medical science creating more expensive treatments. At the moment there is a patchy system of private insurance. This system encourages more expensive treatment, but still not everyone is guaranteed. If you look at European universal health care systems, there is a lower total % of GDP spent on health care, however there is better universal health care coverage.  Universal health care free at the point of use would cut out private health insurers. It could lead to lower wage costs as firms and workers can pay less than they currently do.

Health Care in US and UK

% of health care spending as % of GDPGovt spending as % of total health carePer Capita expenditure 2006 (PPP)Doctors per 10,000 populationNurses / midwives per 10,000Hospital beds per 10,000Life Expectancymale obesity
UK8.287.3281523128398022%
US15.345.367192694317831%

US health care costs were 7% of GDP in 1970. UK was 4% of GDP in 1970 (Runaway health care costs)

More on US vs British health care

In terms of the US long run budget deficit, the growing demand for health care spending (through Medicare and Medicaid) are one of the strongest demands on US federal spending. Dealing with this growth in health care spending is a key factor to ensuring sustainability in US public finances.

5. Improve Public Health

Related to health care is the issue of obesity and the growing diseases of affluence. In the United States, obesity has overtaken tobacco as the biggest killer of people. 16% of all deaths in the US (400,000 a year) are attributed to obesity. [1] Obesity and poor public health are a key factor in reducing living standards.

Rather than spending money on treatment of diseases, (which the current model promotes) there needs to be greater focus on improving health and preventing related health problems. The government could promote a healthier, less obese, population by:

  • Taxing sugary / fatty foods.
  • Regulation of the food industry to reduce portion size e.t.c.
  • Ending the subsidies of corn starch which has encouraged growth of high sugar foods. (billions in tax subsidies to junk industry)
  • Encouraging cycling and pedestrians in city centres – giving less priority to motor cars.

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More on Quantitative Easing and Inflation

Recently, I posted about the current fall in M4 lending in the UK. The concern is that fears over possible future inflation are preventing decisive action to promote economic recovery. But, these fears are misplaced. The fall in M4 lending in the UK is a sign of a fundamental weakness in demand. Given this weakness, …

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Just a little more austerity, please

There’s a wonderful Monty Python sketch where a waiter asks a fat man, ‘just a wafer thin mint, sir?’. On taking this wafer thin mint, the fat man (Mr Creosote) explodes. It feels a little like that with European austerity (except in reverse). Countries in the periphery implement austerity, and the economic situation deteriorates. This …

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Dealing with diminishing crop yields

Readers Question: if the production of food crops is increasing at a diminishing rate what factors of demand can reverse this trend. Increasing at a diminishing rate implies that agricultural output is struggling to grow – despite more fertilisers and capital investment. Diminishing returns means that as we employ more factors of production – the …

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Purpose of Monetary Policy

Recently, there has been much debate about the direction of monetary policy. Should we make monetary policy ‘looser’ – expansionary monetary policy through quantitative easing / lower interest rates in order to boost growth and reduce unemployment. Or should we consider ‘tightening’ monetary policy – higher interest rates, no quantitative easing in order to reduce inflation

Most economists would agree monetary policy involves

  1. Maintaining a low and stable rate of inflation.
  2. Promoting sustainable economic growth and low unemployment.

These two economic goals may not sound too controversial. But, there is a big debate about which goal is more important, and whether we should ever sacrifice a strict inflation target to pursue higher economic growth.

To some economists, the overriding target of monetary policy should be low inflation. They argue that if the Central Bank targets low inflation, then that provides the optimal environment for long-term economic prosperity. If the Central Bank starts targeting economic growth and ignoring inflation, then there is a danger that the Central Bank will lose credibility. The economy will end up with higher inflation, without any long term boost to economic growth. Furthermore, if you allow inflation to increase, this increases long-term inflation expectations and, in the future, it will be more difficult and costly to keep inflation low.

This is essentially the view of the German Bundesbank, and by and large the European Central bank.

If you look at an economic boom, such as the late 1980s in the UK, in this case inflation was allowed to rise as the UK pursued a higher than usual rate of growth. However, it later proved unsustainable and we had a boom and bust.

If low inflation is seen as primary economic goal, then:

  • Quantitative easing is seen with great distaste as there is the possibility of future inflation.
  • There should be no flexibility over the inflation target. E.g. even temporary cost push inflation should be a matter of concern, over fears that the higher inflation could change expectations and lead to permanent inflation.
  • There is an unwillingness to use monetary policy to boost demand and hasten economic recovery.
  • The solution for high unemployment and negative growth tends to be:
  • Supply side policies to increase competitiveness
  • patience, allowing market forces to invest, encouraged by macro economic stability of a low inflation environment.

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M4 Lending and Growth Statistics 2012

M4 Definition

M4 is a broad money supply measure. Briefly, M4 includes all notes and coins in circulation, deposits at banks and building societies, plus assets which are considered relatively liquid (short-term bonds, commercial paper)

M4 growth is currently negative. M4 lending to private sector is currently 6.0% lower compared to past 12 month (July 2012)

Within this growth of M4, there have been different trends. As this article at FT shows, a major contributor to M4 growth in period 2009-11 has been the impact of quantitative easing (Could UK Money Supply collapse post Q.E ?).

M4 Lending  Deposits

m4 lending

M4 net lending (Bank of England code: LPMVQJY) from financial institutions to the private sector has shown negative growth since July 2010.

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Key Issues Affecting UK economy 2012

What are the key issues affecting the UK economy over the next few years? Recession and Recovery The biggest problem facing the UK economy is the lack of economic recovery. After a fall in GDP of 6% in 2008/09, the economy briefly recovered, but the recent double dip recession of 2012 has left the UK …

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Banks and the Creation of Money

money-multiplier-table

Readers Question: Is it right that private banks can create 97% of all new money by lending it into existence, and what effect does this have on inflation and the value of money already in existence? It is true, that banks can effectively increase the money supply, by lending out say 97% of all deposits. …

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