economic growth

Recent economic growth compared to trend growth

Recent economic growth compared to trend growth

These are a few interesting graphs which give different perspective on the same situation. i.e. recent economic recoveries – looking at both UK and Spain. Firstly, UK economic growth in the past four years. After weak / negative growth in 2011 and 2012, the UK has been growing at a quarterly rate of approx 0.6%. This equates to an annual rate of approx. 2.4% – which is very close to the UK’s long run trend rate of economic growth (2.5% is…

Economic Growth UK

Economic Growth UK

Economic growth measures the change in real GDP (national income adjusted for inflation; ONS call it chained volume measure of GDP) In 2014 the UK economy grew by 2.4% –  (compared to 1.7% in 2013. GDP was 2.6% higher in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago. The peak to trough fall of the economic downturn in 2008/2009 is now estimated to be 6.0% In 2013, GDP at market prices was £1,713,302 million (£1.7 trillion) Updated September 14th, 2015 Recent UK Economic Growth

France vs UK recovery

France vs UK recovery

Useful post from Paul Krugman about a comparison between the French and UK recoveries. It stems from comments by a Conservative cabinet minister that ‘the French economy is being run into the sand.’ For those who can’t get past the NY Times paywall, I’ll post the two graphs here. UK and France since 2010 The French economy is forecast to grow by just 1 per cent this year, according to OECD forecasts, compared to…

The recession is over but not the depression

The recession is over but not the depression

Some thought provoking analysis from NIESR. Firstly, they define recession and depression in an interesting way. Recession – a period of time where output is falling. Depression – The period of time where output is below it’s peak. The UK economy is now growing, at a decent pace (0.8% in Q3). However, output is still significantly below the old 2008 peak. This means that the recession is over. But, with output still below the 2008 peak, the prolonged period of depression is still not over, according to this definition. Also, if we compare…

The Great Moderation

The Great Moderation

The great moderation refers to a period of economic stability characterised by low inflation, positive economic growth, and the belief that the boom and bust cycle had been overcome. In retrospect, economists look back on the great moderation in a different light because although inflation was low, there was great volatility in financial markets and asset prices. Generally, the great moderation refers to the period 1986 – 2006. In…

What Explains Differences in Economic Growth Rates?

What Explains Differences in Economic Growth Rates?

Readers Question: Given the widely varying fiscal policies of countries, both left and right, how come their growth rates over the long term are so close? source: World Bank To some extent growth rates are close; though it also depends which data and countries you use. However, from a very broad perspective, growth rates do share similar patterns and growth rates. Why there are Similarities in Economic Growth Rates? To some extent there…

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Do we need economic growth in a modern economy?

A look at whether we actually need economic growth in a modern economy. Readers Question: When I compare my life with my fathers at that time the conditions are near identical in the greater things or life. I work the same hours, maybe more. I have the same holidays. I have a similar standard of material comfort (a washing machine, a car, heating, a beer when I want one) although with a lot more ‘stuff’ in terms of gadgets (TVs computers etc). My father retired at 60. I’ll have to…

Why Do People Not Notice Economic Growth?

Why Do People Not Notice Economic Growth?

Readers Question: why does economic growth not get noticed by the man on the street? Recently, the ONS released a report saying that real wages were 62% higher than in 1986. This is the result of sustained economic growth. (Real wages take into account inflation.) In April 2011 the average full-time employee in the UK earned around £12.62 per hour excluding overtime. This is a monetary (nominal) increase of 226% since 1986 when the average wage was £3.87 per hour. Inequality of Real Income growth The top 1 per cent had the…