Impact of Chinese stock market crash

In recent months, the Chinese stock market has been very volatile, with sharp drops in prices since last July. On August 24th, share prices fell 9% – one of the biggest single day falls. People fear this is the bursting of the Chinese stock market bubble which could have serious effects on the global economy. …

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Factors affecting the price of gold

gold

A look at the different economic factors that determine the price of gold Essentially the price of gold is determined by: Supply of gold Demand for use in goods such as jewellery. Speculative demand to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. In early August 2011, gold touched $1,716.19. Adjusted for inflation, the record gold price …

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New OCR economics revision guide

I have spent past few weeks working on the new OCR A Level in economics revision guide. (H460) First teaching from Sept 2015. First A level exam Summer 2017. On the positive side, the syllabus is very detailed. OCR are very clear on what you need to cover. After doing AQA and Edexcel revision guides, …

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The real value of government debt

national-debt-1910-2019

Readers Question. I greatly appreciate the time that you took to try to explain our debt situation.  (History of National Debt / GDP) One thing that still confuses me is why our debt actually rose during a sustained time period where debt/GDP charts showed that it shrank. This is very important. (and I wish those …

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TIPP – UK / US trade deal

TIPP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) is a potential trade deal between the EU and US. It is currently being negotiated by the European Commission and the US.

freightliner-railway-train

The aim of the agreement is

  • Encouraging trade and investment between the EU and the US.
  • Extend principles of European Single Market to include the US, enabling lower prices for consumers, greater trade and prosperity.

However, critics of the agreement fear that the proposal will lead to lower environmental standards, job losses, privatisation of public services, and overall is geared towards favouring big business at the expense of the consumer and environment.

The main areas of TTIP include

  • Removal of red tape and bureaucracy for firms who are exporting.
  • Setting new rules to make it easier to export, import and invest.
  • Harmonisation of rules and regulations relating to trade between EU and US.
  • Create a fairer process and clearer rules for firms who invest in other countries. This includes ISDS (Investors state dispute settlement) which enable firms to sue governments for lost profits relating to government regulation.

Potential benefits of TTIP

  • Encouraging inward investment from US companies, which will lead to the creation of jobs and kickstart the EU economy.
  • Extending the principles of the single market to reduce interference and non-tariff barriers to trade
  • Greater choice of imports, enables lower prices for consumers. This could be significant in areas like jeans and cars. It might help to reduce the price differential between US and EU in areas like clothes and computers.
  • More exports. The UK could export more to US. For example, British lamb and venison cannot currently be exported to US.
  • The EU received over €325 bn investment flows from around the world (34% of world inward investment) The British government have claimed that TTIP could add £10bn to the UK economy.

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Saltwater vs Freshwater Economics

Saltwater economists are associated with economists from the Universities on the east and west coast of the US. In particular universities such as Berkeley, Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Pennsylvania Columbia and Yale. Economic thought from these universities tends to be more suspicious of free markets and advocate a greater role for government regulation and discretionary fiscal …

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What has borrowing ever done for me?

uk-national-debt

A reader on twitter asked – How has government borrowing helped me recently?

I’m tempted to paraphrase as – What has borrowing ever done for me? – just so that I can make a reference to Monty Python and the Life of Brian? – And what have the Romans ever done for us? – apart from education, sewers, wine, roads, peace, law and order  … (youtube)

I’ve answered this question several times before:

But, I frequently get asked it, so here’s a few more ideas.

Why do we need to be in debt at all?
Surely all the money in interest (some £50bn pa?) would be better spent on ourselves as a country?

It is true that the government spends around £50bn a year on interest payments. (and forecast to rise) But, those interest payments enable higher government spending now.

We could reduce the amount of interest payments by raising taxes / cutting spending. But, it wouldn’t make us better off. It would just change how we finance current spending.

Also, who do those interest payments go to – primarily UK individuals/UK pension funds. You can think of it as a transfer payment to people within a country.

You could argue that it is a transfer payment from the average taxpayer to people with pension funds / city financiers – who are likely to be better off. But, more people with private pensions may benefit from government interest payments than they realise.

Interest rates are also very low, which means interest payments on government debt are quite a small percentage of GDP. (3%)

Use of private sector saving

In the great recession, there was a rapid rise in private sector saving. This was money not used, but just saved and unproductive.

net-lending-private-public-debt
Source: ONS

If the government borrowed nothing, these resources would remain idle, aggregate demand would be lower and the recession deeper. Through government borrowing, we made use of this surplus savings and helped to stabilise the economy. (recession not as deep)

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GDP deflator

gdp-deflator

GDP deflator (implicit price deflator for GDP) is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestic goods and services in an economy. The GDP deflator regularly updates the type of goods and services used to measure the implicit price deflator – depending on which goods are being bought. e.g.If the price of …

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