Forecasts for Pound Sterling in 2023 and PPP rates

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In September, the Pound plunged to its lowest level on record reaching a low of 1.03 during a day’s trading. The markets were spooked by the government’s unfunded tax cuts and likely £190 bn budget deficit. Investors viewed the Kwarteng/Truss budget as the shortest suicide note in history. Investors sold Sterling and UK bonds, creating …

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Costs of Brexit

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The UK voted to leave the EU in May 2016. It formally left the EU on 31 January 2020. The transition period ended on 31 January 2021. At this time, UK trade with the EU is subject to new paperwork, customs checks and import duties. The impact of Brexit has been made uncertain due to …

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Britain’s new winter of discontent

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In 1974, the National Institute for Economic & Social Research made a report about the UK economy, concluding: “It is not often that a government finds itself confronted with a possibility of a simultaneous failure to achieve all four main policy objectives: adequate economic growth, full employment, a satisfactory balance of payments, and reasonable, stable …

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Will a surge in borrowing cause a debt crisis in the UK?

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As the chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was announcing his radical budget of energy bailout, and tax cuts for corporations and high-income earners, the markets took a dim view. Sterling fell and bond yields on government debt rose as investors sold UK bonds in response to the deteriorating outlook.   Uniquely for such a large change of …

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Impact of Russian sanctions on Europe and the West

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In March 2022, the EU, US and other western countries introduced a range of sanctions on the Russian economy. These sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, but they are also causing unprecedented strain on the West and Europe in particular. The big economic threat to Europe involves: Higher inflation from rising energy prices Threat of …

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