Costs of Inflation

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There are many costs associated with inflation; the volatility and uncertainty can lead to lower levels of investment and lower economic growth. For individuals, inflation can lead to a fall in the value of their savings and redistribute income in society from savers to lenders and those with assets. At extreme levels, inflation can destabilise …

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Different types of inflation

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Inflation means a sustained increase in the general price level. The main two types of inflation are Demand-pull inflation – this occurs when the economy grows quickly and starts to ‘overheat’ – Aggregate demand (AD) will be increasing faster than aggregate supply (LRAS). Cost-push inflation – this occurs when there is a rise in the …

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Inflation and Recession

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In a recession, you would usually expect a fall in the inflation rate due to lower demand and lower economic activity. The inflation rate fell in major recessions like 1929-32, 1981, 1991 and 2020.. However, it is not guaranteed inflation will fall in recession. For example, we could have a period of stagflation – rising …

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Long-Term inflation forecasts

Originally published in March 2015. Current inflation rate (Feb 2020) is 1.3%. I was 0.7% out. But there was no skill in predicting inflation of 2%. If Ii had to predict inflation for 2025, I would predict the same = 2%. Reader’s Question: What will be the inflation rate in 2020? Firstly, I can’t resist …

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What is the optimal inflation rate?

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The optimal inflation rate is often considered to be around 2%. For example: The UK target inflation of 2% +/-1 The ECB target inflation of less than 2% US Federal Reserve target inflation of less than 2% (But from 2020 are likely to make inflation target symmetrical like the UK) Why Central Banks wish to …

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Hedonic adjustment and Inflation

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Hedonics is the science of trying to work out how much product quality has changed and adjusting inflation to take account of the fact more expensive products are not just inflation, but also improved quality. It is used in the US and UK calculation of inflation. If a TV increases in price by 10%, and …

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Hyper Inflation in Zimbabwe

In 2008, Zimbabwe had the second highest incidence of hyperinflation on record. The estimated inflation rate for Nov 2008 was 79,600,000,000% That is effectively a daily inflation rate of 98.0. Roughly every day, prices would double. It was also a time of real hardship and poverty, with an unemployment rate of close to 80% and a …

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Inflation: advantages and disadvantages

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Readers Question: what are the advantages and disadvantages of inflation? Inflation occurs when there is a sustained increase in the general price level. Traditionally high inflation rates are considered to be damaging to an economy. High inflation creates uncertainty and can wipe away the value of savings. However, most Central Banks target an inflation rate …

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