There are many ways for statistics to be misleading. Firstly, governments can just outright lie and make up their own statistics. When inflation was too high in Argentina, the government ordered the statistics agency to reduce the inflation rate. Problem solved. In Soviet times, local officials would fall over themselves to produce statistics that iron …
It’s pretty easy to talk about the problems with the UK economy – 18 years of low growth, stagnant real wages, low productivity, low investment, housing costs through the roof. The numbers don’t lie. If past trends had continued from 2007, average households would be at least £8,000 a year better off. If we could …
Whilst UK incomes have stagnated in recent years, the UK’s net wealth has increased from £2.9 trillion in 1995 to £12.2 trillion last year. The biggest rise is not in wealth related to productive assets but passive wealth – basically rising house prices. In recent decades the ratio of wealth to income has more than …
It’s not been a good week for the UK economy with the Bank of England downgrading economic growth and upgrading inflation forecasts. We’re heading for stagflation, the worst of both worlds. If you wanted more bad news, the Bank of England warned that productivity growth may actually be even worse than the pretty dismal statistics …
Do you remember the days when you can afford to buy a house with a modest income and small deposit? I don’t. I’m middle aged, but the last time house prices were affordable, I was trying to buy football stickers rather than a 3 bed semi. 10 Reasons You Can’t Afford to buy a House?Watch …
There’s been no honeymoon for the new Labour government. Since the election in July, UK growth has continued its long-term trend of barely existing. Recent data disappointed analysts with output falling in the last two months. Monthly data is noisy, but it comes amidst business warning of a weaker labour market, with higher national insurance, …
In 1957, the British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan proclaimed to the electorate “You’ve never had it so good”. And he had a point, full employment, a growing economy, debt falling rapidly, record house building, rising wages, universal health care and a growing sense of optimism that things would keep getting better. But, can you imagine …
Recently the ONS produced a long-term forecast for spending and taxation. It makes for grim reading. Assuming policy doesn’t change, they forecast UK debt will rise to levels last seen in the Napoleonic Wars. This forecast also assumes there are no external shocks like Covid or the Ukraine war. At the same time, bond investors …